000 AXNT20 KNHC 222338 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jun 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): A broad low pressure area is located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with a mean 1006 mb center near 22N96W. Just a few hours ago, a gale warning was issued for the central and SW Gulf waters south of 26N and west of 94W, including the offshore waters from Tampico to Veracruz based on an afternoon ASCAT satellite pass that showed northwest to north gale winds of 30 to 35 kt over these waters. Seas with these winds were 9 to 11 ft. These winds are forecast to diminish to below gale-force at 0000 UTC tonight. Satellite imagery shows decreasing scattered showers and thunderstorms over most of the central Gulf waters from 22N to 26N west of 87W to inland Mexico, where the activity becomes numerous in coverage. In its wake, increasing numerous moderate to strong convection is vividly noted over the Yucatan Peninsula. This activity reaches the adjacent coastal waters of the NW side of the peninsula. Winds near the mean low center are mostly at fresh to strong speeds, with seas of about 7 to 9 ft. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form before the system reaches the coast of northeastern Mexico Sun night. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely to cause localized flooding across portions of northeastern Mexico and Deep South Texas through the end of the weekend. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Suny, if necessary. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and in 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W/38W from 03N to 15N, moving westward at about 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is confined to near the ITCZ from 08N to 10N between 33W and 39W. This convection is likely being enhanced by the nearby ITCZ segments. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from 21N50W to 12N52W to inland Brazil near 03N51W. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm west of the wave axis from 11N to 14N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 04N to 08N between 50W and 54W. Another central Atlantic tropical wave is just of the Windward Islands, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The 1200 UTC upper-air data from Trinidad and Tobago and that of Barbados greatly assisted with the position of this wave. The 1800 UTC position is based on continuity in keeping the same forward motion as earlier. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection along and within 60 nm east of the wave axis south from 09N to 12N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over northeast Venezuela and over Guyana from 06N to 09N between 59W and 61W. ons of NE Venezuela. An central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W south of 18N moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave over Colombia from 09N to 11N. Scattered moderate convection is west of the wave to Jamaica, and north of 17N to approaches to the Windward Passage. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 09N20W. The ITCZ extends from 09N20W to 06N35W, and begins again at 06N40W to 07N49W. Aside from convection described above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Invest AL93 that is over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Relatively weak high pressure is over the area. Outside of the influence of AL93, moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail over the Gulf west of 90W. Seas over these waters are 6 to 10 in east to southeast swell. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the range of 4 to 7 ft remain elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, outside of the influence of AL93, winds and seas east of 90W will diminish to gentle to moderate and slight seas tonight and to light to gentle speeds on Sun through Wed. Conditions are forecast to improve W of 90W Sun afternoon into Mon as the low pressure system moves inland across Mexico. Weak high pressure will reside over the east-central Gulf Tue and Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. The extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough extends from Honduras and Nicaragua across the waters to Colombia. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 09N to 13N west of 76W to over Costa Rica and northern Panama , including inland over Panama. Scattered moderate convection is north of 18N west of 75W, including Cayman Basin and Yucatan Channel. Latest ASCAT satellite data passes revealed moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean and gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft over the central Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Seas may peak to 6 ft near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula over the far northwestern Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and moderate seas over the NW Caribbean tonight will diminish to moderate speeds on Sun and then prevail through Thu, except for pulsing strong winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras through Mon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue night, pulsing to strong speeds at night near the coast over the south- central basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. The western Atlantic wind regime is under the influence of a 1023 mb high pressure center located west of Bermuda. Latest ASCAT satellite data passes indicate moderate or weaker trade winds across the basin west of 40W. Trade winds are moderate to fresh east of 40W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the basin, except 8 to 9 ft in an are of northeast swell from 13N to 21N east of 38W. A surface trough extends from near 28N49W to 23N51W. An area of increasing scattered moderate convection is to the southeast of this trough from 21N to 26N between 44W and 50W. This activity is being enhanced by divergence aloft present east of a nearby upper-level low. Another surface trough extends from 29N57W to 25N63W. No significant convection is occurring with this trough. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh southeast winds and moderate seas will prevail across the waters N of 29N and W of 75W tonight as low pressure persists near the SE U.S. coast, then become fresh from the south to southwest in direction Sun night through Mon as the low pressure moves northward. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally prevail elsewhere across the region through Sun night. High pressure north of the region will build SW into the NW Bahamas Sun night through Tue, then shift NE and weaken through Thu. Winds and seas will increase across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles starting on Mon due to an approaching tropical wave. $$ Aguirre