000 AXNT20 KNHC 231646 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jun 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the area of low pressure centered about 40 miles southeast of La Pesca, Mexico does not have a well-defined center of circulation. Some slight development of this system is still possible, and a short- lived tropical depression could form before it reaches the coast of northeastern Mexico by this evening. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely to cause localized flooding across portions of northeastern Mexico and Deep South Texas through tonight. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and in 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis along 21W, south of 14N, is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted between the wave's axis and 26W. A central Atlantic tropical wave axis along 42W, south of 13N, is moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is depicted associated with this wave. Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06N to 10N along the waves axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is enhancing the storm activity south of 13N and over central Venezuela. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is enhancing convective activity S of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 08N25W. The ITCZ extends from 08N25W to 0N52.5W. Aside from convection described above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 27W-34W and 44W-51W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Invest AL93 centered over the SW Gulf of Mexico. Broad subtropical ridge over the SE United States extends southward into the Gulf of Mexico along with a 1017 mb high pressure near 29N89W. Outside of the influence of Invest AL93, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. An area of moderate convection is depicted north of the Yucatan Peninsula and over the eastern Gulf. While generally dry conditions are found elsewhere. For the forecast, a 1006 mb low pressure across the W Gulf this morning, centered near 23N97W, will move W-NW and inland early this evening and dissipate by Mon morning, with marine conditions quickly improving across the western Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail E of 90W and will diminish to gentle to moderate and slight seas tonight and to light to gentle speeds through Wed. Weak high pressure will reside over the E central Gulf Tue and Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Greater Antilles and nearby waters. Drier conditions are noted elsewhere in the basin. A 1022 mb high pressure system centered near 42N45W forces fresh easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate or weaker and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the Caribbean. For the forecast, the W Atlantic ridge extends along 33N to offshore of the SE U.S. Moderate trade winds and moderate seas are expected to prevail across the western basin through the week, except for winds pulsing to strong speeds at night in the Gulf of Honduras through Mon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue, pulsing to strong speeds at night near the coast over the south- central basin. Fresh to strong trades will accompany a tropical wave moving across the eastern basin Tue through Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. An extensive subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores dominates the tropical Atlantic. Upper level divergence is producing moderate scattered convection between the western Bahamas and Cuba. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N72W to 26N74W, producing scattered moderate convection along the trough axis. Another surface trough is analyzed between Bermuda and Puerto Rico and moderate convection is evident near the trough axis. Another area of upper level divergence is generating scattered moderate convection from 27N to 31N between 43W to 48W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in western Africa and the deep tropics sustain fresh to locally strong NE-E winds south of a line from 22N34W to 18N51W. Seas in these waters are in the 6-9 ft range. In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, an Atlantic ridge extends westward along 33N to offshore of the SE U.S. coast. Fresh southerly winds and moderate seas will prevail across the waters N of 29N and W of 75W through Mon as low pressure across the SE U.S. moves northward. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally prevail elsewhere across the region through tonight. High pressure north of the region will build SW into the NW Bahamas tonight through Tue, then shift NE and weaken through Thu. Winds and seas will increase across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles Mon through midday Tue associated with a tropical wave. $$ KRV