000 AXNT20 KNHC 240519 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jun 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave has is along 44W, south of 13N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are observed near the trough axis. Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are evident near the trough axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is enhancing the storm activity over Venezuela. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm either side of the wave axis south of 14N, affecting Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 08N43W and then from 08N45W to 08N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 12N and east of 23W and from 05N to 12N and between 46W and 55W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Invest 93L is along the coast of Tamaulipas and continues to produce a small area of showers near the center. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under generally dry conditions. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are occurring in the western Gulf in association with Invest 93L. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, 1007 MB low pressure along the coast of Tamaulipas is forecast to dissipate by Mon morning, with marine conditions quickly improving there. Moderate winds and slight seas prevail E of 90W and will diminish to gentle to moderate overnight and to light to gentle speeds through Wed. Weak high pressure will reside over the E central Gulf Tue through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continue to enhance the showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Greater Antilles and surrounding waters. Similar convection is noted off NW Colombia, off eastern Yucatan and NE Caribbean, also affecting the Leeward Islands. An expansive subtropical ridge centered between Bermuda and the Azores extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. The ridge is forcing fresh to locally strong easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, the W Atlantic ridge extends along 32N-33N to offshore of NE Florida. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon night, pulsing to strong speeds at night near the coast over the south-central basin. Moderate trade winds and moderate seas are expected to prevail across the western basin through the week, except for winds pulsing to strong speeds at night in the Gulf of Honduras through Mon. Fresh to strong trades will accompany a tropical wave moving across the eastern basin Tue through early Wed and across the central basin Wed through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms impacting the central and NW Bahamas and surrounding waters. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, Saharan dust and subsidence allow for drier conditions. An expansive subtropical ridge is centered between Bermuda and the Azores. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are occurring north of 30N and west of 77W. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain fresh to locally strong NE-E winds south of 25N and between 30W and 60W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 11N47W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present east of 30W. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, an Atlantic ridge extends westward along 32N-33N to offshore of NE Florida. Fresh southerly winds and moderate seas will prevail across the waters N of 29N and W of 75W through Mon as low pressure across the SE U.S. moves northward. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally prevail elsewhere across the region through Wed, becoming SE to S winds W of 65W. High pressure north of the region will build SW into the NW Bahamas tonight through Tue, then shift NE and weaken through Thu. Winds and seas will increase across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles early Mon through midday Tue associated with the passage of a tropical wave. $$ Delgado