000 AXNT20 KNHC 241629 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jun 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical was relocated in the latest surface analysis based on wave diagnostics along 24W, south of 15N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13.5N between 19W and the wave's axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave was relocated in the latest surface analysis based on wave diagnostics and the latest scatterometer data along 53W, south of 13N. Scattered showers are noted from 08N to 14N between 50W and 56W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave's axis, from 10N-14N. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted along the trough axis. The western Caribbean/EPAC tropical wave have moved over the Eastern Pacific. For more information about this wave please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 07N32W. The ITCZ extends from 07N32W to 10N59.5W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 9N between 26W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The basin is under generally dry conditions, with the exception of some showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail across the Gulf. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds prevail across most of the basin, with light winds across the eastern Gulf. Slight seas can also be expected across the Gulf through the week. Winds will increase moderate to locally fresh at night across the western Gulf through most of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continue to enhance the showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Greater Antilles and surrounding waters. Similar convection is noted off NW Colombia, off eastern Yucatan and NE Caribbean, also affecting the Leeward Islands. An expansive subtropical ridge centered between Bermuda and the Azores extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. The ridge is forcing fresh to locally strong easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, surface ridging prevails across the Atlantic basin. This is causing moderate to fresh winds to persist across the eastern and central Caribbean through tonight. Winds are expected to pulse to strong speeds tonight near the coast over the south- central basin. Moderate trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the western basin through the week, except for winds pulsing to strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras later this afternoon. Fresh to strong trades will accompany a tropical wave moving across the eastern basin Tue through early Wed and across the central basin Wed through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Two surface troughs are analyzed over the wester Atlantic. One trough is analyzed over the western Bahamas, while the second trough is from 28N67W to 24N73W. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are depicted along the second surface trough. This convection is being enhanced by divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, Saharan dust and subsidence allow for drier conditions. An expansive subtropical ridge is centered between Bermuda and the Azores. Moderate to fresh southwesterly winds and seas of 4-5 ft are occurring north of 30N and west of 75W. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain fresh to locally strong NE-E winds south of 25N and between 33W and 60W. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 11N50W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present east of 33W. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, an Atlantic ridge extends westward along 30N to offshore of NE Florida. This ridge will shift NE tonight into Tue and weaken through Thu. Fresh southerly winds and moderate seas will prevail across the waters N of 30N and W of 75W today. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally prevail elsewhere across the region through Wed, becoming SE to S winds W of 65W. Fresh to strong winds across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles will prevail through Tue associated with the passage of a tropical wave. $$ KRV