000 AXNT20 KNHC 242147 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jun 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is extending along 25W, from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 20W and 25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is noted along 55W, S of 12N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is note from 08N to 12N between 50W and 56W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, from the Virgin Islands to Venezuela, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 61W and 65W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 72W, from 15N S into western Venezuela, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 14N between 70W and 74W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 09N between 26W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Convection near the coast of Mexico has dissipated this afternoon, leaving the basin dry. Weak high pressure centered in the NE Gulf is leading to light to gentle mainly SE winds through the area, except for moderate E winds offshore the western Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnally induced trough is pushing into the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, light to gentle winds prevail across the basin along with slight seas. Winds will pulse moderate to locally fresh at night across the western Gulf through most of the week. Slight seas will prevail through the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Divergence aloft, deep tropical moisture, and now the influence of a tropical wave, are leading to increased convection over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and adjacent Caribbean waters. Similar convection is noted off NW Colombia, off the eastern Yucatan, and in the NE Caribbean. An expansive subtropical ridge centered between Bermuda and the Azores extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. The ridge is forcing fresh to locally strong easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Mainly moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere, although some fresh trades have developed this afternoon offshore Honduras. For the forecast, surface ridging prevails across the Atlantic basin. Winds are expected to pulse to strong speeds tonight near the coast over the south- central basin. Moderate trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the western basin through the week, with strong winds pulsing in the Gulf of Honduras this evening. Fresh to strong trades will accompany a tropical wave moving across the eastern and central basin Tue through Thu. Winds will also increase fresh to locally strong in the NW Caribbean from this tropical wave later this week into the weekend, as well as an increase in seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Two surface troughs are analyzed over the western Atlantic. One trough is analyzed over the western Bahamas, while the second trough is from 28N67W to 24N73W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the second trough, which is being enhanced by upper level divergence and deep tropical moisture. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, Saharan dust and subsidence allow for drier conditions. An expansive subtropical ridge is centered between Bermuda and the Azores. Moderate to fresh southwesterly winds and seas of 4-5 ft are occurring north of 30N and west of 75W. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain fresh NE-E winds south of 25N and between 25W and 60W. Seas in these waters are 7 to 9 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 15N55W. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will shift NE tonight into Tue and weaken through Thu. Fresh southerly winds and moderate seas will prevail across the waters N of 30N and W of 75W through tonight. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally prevail elsewhere across the region through Wed, becoming SE to S winds W of 65W. Fresh to strong winds across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles will prevail through tonight associated with the passage of a tropical wave. $$ Konarik