000 AXNT20 KNHC 251551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jun 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned to near 24W, south of 15N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-11N and between 22W-28W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection prevails south of 15N between 61W-67W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection prevails south of 13N between 78W-83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 08N29W. The ITCZ extends from 08N29W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 120 NM on either sides of the boundaries. The E North Pacific monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica eastward to a 1010 mb low over NW Colombia. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection prevails south of 13N between 78W-83W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak 1016 mb high pressure system centered near 26N87W dominates the basin, supporting gentle or weaker winds and only 1-3 ft seas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the SW Gulf of Mexico, over the Yucatan Channel, and over the coastal waters of south Florida. For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas over the eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the western half of the basin. Looking ahead, wind and seas may increase over the SW Gulf during the upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north of the area and the 1010 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong trades across the E and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate in the W Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft over the E and central Caribbean and 2-5 ft over the W Caribbean. As noted in the tropical wave section, Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection prevails south of 13N between 78W-83W as well as south of 15N between 61W-67W. For the forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for slow development of the tropical wave currently at 65W, once the wave reaches the western Caribbean late this week. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas will accompany this wave across the eastern and central Caribbean through Thu. Winds and seas could further increase across the NW Caribbean toward the end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A 1026 mb Bermuda-Azores High centered at 31N42W has surface ridging associated with it extending west-southwestward to 28N80W and east- northeastward north of our waters. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridging and the ITCZ/monsoon trough is causing generally moderate to fresh trades south of 27N. Seas are 8-10 ft just east of the Lesser Antilles, 5-7 ft elsewhere south of 27N, and 3-5 ft north of 27N. A surface trough is located near the Bahamas from 24N74W to 27N70W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 24N-28N between 69W-78W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will dominate the area during the forecast period producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with moderate seas E of 75W and NE of the Bahamas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail. $$ Landsea/Rubio