000 AXNT20 KNHC 260558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jun 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Rainy Pattern for Southern Mexico and Central America: Latest computer model outputs suggest the formation of another Central American Gyre (CAG) for the next several days. Residents in these regions need to stay informed with the latest information from their local weather offices. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands near 27W from 15N southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 23W and 33W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 19N southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 33W and 43W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W from the near the eastern tip of Hispaniola southward across western Venezuela. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen at the central Caribbean and over northern Venezuela. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W, from near the Providencia and Santa Catalina Islands southward western Panama into the Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Numerous showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring across the Caribbean waters near Panama. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near the Nicaragua coast and aforementioned islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of southern Senegal, then curves southwestward through 10N23W to 08N41W. An ITCZ extends westward from 07N46W to near Georgetown, Guyana. Scattered moderate convection is evident near the trough from 08N to 11N between 20W and 23W, and up to 90 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough across central Florida is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the west coast of Florida. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are found at the north- central and western Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri, supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas over the eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the western half of the basin. Looking ahead, wind and seas may increase over the southwestern Gulf during this weekend as a strong tropical wave, with slight potential of tropical cyclone development reaches the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trades are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Cayman Islands and the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin. A moderate pressure gradient between the Atlantic Ridge near 24N70W and lower pressure over northern Colombia is creating moderate to fresh ENE to E trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft across the central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate seas will accompany the aforementioned tropical wave across the eastern and central basin through Thu. By this weekend, environmental conditions at the western basin could become more conducive for this wave to gradually develop. Therefore, winds and seas could further increase across the northwestern basin late this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A low to mid-level trough is coupling with divergent winds aloft to produce numerous moderate convection northeast of the Bahamas from 24N to 30N between 64W and 73W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1027 mb high at the north-central Atlantic across 31N53W to near the southeast Bahamas. This feature is supporting gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas north of 20N between 25W and Florida/Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft dominate north of 18N between the northwest Africa coast and 25W. Farther south near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NW to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present from 10N to 18N/20N between the central Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are evident. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the broad surface ridge will dominate the area through this weekend, producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with moderate seas east of 75W and northeast of the Bahamas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail due to the presence of a surface trough east of Florida but near the northwest Bahamas. $$ Chan