000 AXNT20 KNHC 261104 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jun 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Rainy Pattern for Southern Mexico and Central America: Latest computer model outputs suggest the formation of another Central American Gyre (CAG) today through early next week. The system is expected to affect Panama and Costa Rica from Wed through Fri, northern Central America from Fri through Sun, and southern Mexico from Fri into Mon. Residents in these regions need to stay informed with the latest information from their local weather offices. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 03N to 15N with axis near 28W, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 23W and 36W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to 19N with axis near 45W, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 36W and 50W. A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with axis S of 17N near 71W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 19N between 67W and 77W. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 16N with axis near 82W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is S of 17N W of 79W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of southern Senegal, then curves southwestward through 10N23W to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends westward from 08N40W to 08N44W, then resumes from 07N46W to 07N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 08N between 08W and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 10N W of 52W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Currently, there is a weak pressure gradient in the basin due to low pressures along Florida and Mexico. This is supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds and slight seas across the gulf. A surface trough of Veracruz is generating scattered showers and isolated tstms over the Bay of Campeche, suporting locally moderate winds in that region. For the forecast, surface ridging will build and dominate the Gulf waters through Fri supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas over the eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the western half of the basin. Looking ahead, wind and seas may increase over the SW Gulf during the upcoming weekend as a strong tropical wave, with some potential of tropical cyclone development reaches the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with axis near 71W, producing limited shower activity as it moves quickly westward at around 20-22 kt. A moderate pressure gradient between the Atlantic Ridge and lower pressure associated with the wave and over northern Colombia is creating moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the eastern and SW Caribbean. Over the central basin, the passage of the wave is supporting fresh to strong winds S of Hispaniola along with rough seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, environmental conditions could become more conducive for some gradual development of the tropical wave late this week over the western Caribbean Sea or over the SW Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. Regardless of development, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will accompany this wave as it continues its westward track across the central and western Caribbean through Fri night. Moderate to fresh trade winds are forecast elsewhere Fri through Sun night, except for light to gentle winds over the SW Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and tstms are ongoing over the offshore waters E of the Bahamas as well as across the northern Bahamas. Earlier scatterometer data showed gusty winds to gale force winds in the region of strongest tstms. Other than this broad area of convection, the remainder subtropical Atlantic remains under the inlfuence of the Azores High, which is supporting mainly moderate NE to E winds across the eastern and central portions of the subtropical waters, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the western portion of the region. Seas are mainly moderate across the entire subtropics. Over the tropical waters, trades are mainly moderate between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will dominate the area during the forecast period producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with moderate seas E of 75W and NE of the Bahamas. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough N of 27N between 65W and 75W will support fresh to locally strong S to SW winds from this evening through Thu evening. $$ Ramos