000 AXNT20 KNHC 261758 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jun 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America: Satellite imagery reveals the beginnings of a broad cyclonic circulation associated with a forming Central American Gyre (CAG) in Central America. Latest computer model guidance that there will be large precipitation amounts in the coming days with the CAG. Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms over Belize, and over some sections of Honduras and Nicaragua. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over some sections of southeastern Mexico and Guatemala. The period of heavy rainfall in Panama and Costa Rica is expected through Fri, and for Belize, Guatemala and southern Mexico starting during the upcoming weekend and early next week. It is recommended that residents in the area to be affected refer to products from their local or national meteorological weather services for the latest information on this upcoming heavy rainfall event. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W/30W from 03N to 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. The tropical wave is producing disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection west of the wave to 34W from 09N to 11N, and from 05N to 07N. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm east of the wave from 05N to 07N. This wave remains surrounded by very deep atmospheric moisture. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the tropical Atlantic by the end of the week or this weekend while the system continues its westward motion. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W from 05N to 18N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The majority of this wave is being impacted by a dry and stable atmospheric environment. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 09N between 44W and 47W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 74W south of 18N to inland eastern Colombia. It is moving westward at about 20 kt. The 700 mb GFS wind guidance indicates a rather sharp northeast to southeast wind shift near the wave axis. The wave is surrounded by a very moist and unstable atmospheric environment. Increasing clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 14N to 18N. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm east of the wave from 14N to 18N. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds along with seas to 8 ft trail the wave to near 70W. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for some gradual development in a couple of days over the western Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. The previous western Caribbean tropical wave has moved just inland Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. It is near 84W south of 16N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm from 11N to 13N ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from along the coast of southern Senegal and northwest Gambia, southwestward to 10N19W to 09N25W to 08N36W ,where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and to 08N45W. It resumes from 08N46W to 07N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 11W and 17W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 34W and 41W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing for mainly light to gentle variable winds and slight seas over the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving northward over the southwestern Gulf from 19N to 24N between 92W and 96W. This activity is being sustained by a weak upper tough over that part of the Gulf. For the forecast, A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas over the eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the western half of the basin. Looking ahead, wind and seas may increase over the SW Gulf during the upcoming weekend as a strong tropical wave, with some potential of tropical cyclone development reaches the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on a central Caribbean fast moving wave. Otherwise, a moderate pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures in the central and western Caribbean and in northern Colombia is maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate seas across the eastern and southwestern Caribbean as noted in a recent ASCAT pass over those sections of the Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere over the central Caribbean outside the winds associated to the tropical wave. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are over the northwest Caribbean along with slight seas. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are increasing along and just offshore NW Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are south of 11N west of 80W. For the forecast, environmental conditions could become more conducive for some gradual development of the tropical wave late this week over the western Caribbean Sea or over the SW Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. Regardless of development, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will accompany this wave as it continues its westward track across the central and western Caribbean through Fri night. Moderate to fresh trade winds are forecast elsewhere Fri through Sun night, except for light to gentle winds over the SW Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from near 31N73W to just north of the NW Bahamas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 28N to 30N between 71W and 74W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm southeast of the trough between 76W and 78W. This activity is being enhanced by an upper-level trough that extends from near 31N79W to South Florida. A surface trough extends N to S over the interior of the Florida peninsula. It along with daytime heating and energy from the upper trough, is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms are increasing over some interior portions of the peninsula. An areas of numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 26N to 28N between 63W and 67W. Scattered moderate convection is to the east-northeast from 26N to 30N between 60W and 63W. This activity is being sustained by and upper level disturbance that is dropping southeastward along the NE side of an upper-level anticyclone. The the remainder subtropical Atlantic remains under the influence of the Azores High, which is supporting mainly moderate NE to E winds across the eastern and central portions of the subtropical waters, and gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the western portion of the region. Seas are mainly in the moderate range across the sub-tropical region. Gentle to moderate trade winds are east of about 60W, while light to gentle east to southeast winds are west of 60W except for light variable winds west of 65W. Winds may be higher at times in and near the aforementioned areas of convection. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will dominate the area during the forecast period producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with moderate seas east of 75W and northeast of the Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough now extending from 31N73W to near the NW Bahamas will support fresh to locally strong south to southwest winds ahead of the trough axis through Thu evening. $$ Aguirre