000 AXNT20 KNHC 271744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Jun 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in Central America. Latest computer model guidance continues to suggest high precipitation amounts starting today through early next week. As the system continues propagating northwestward it will affect the Gulf of Fonseca Region and eastern areas of Honduras and Nicaragua from Friday into Sunday. The heaviest impact in Belize, Guatemala and Southern Mexico is expected over the weekend. It is recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information from their local meteorological weather agencies. Invest AL95: A tropical wave extends from 02N to 15N with axis near 33.8W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 12N between 30W and 43W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive, and development of this system is anticipated. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form this weekend several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. Chances of development in the next 48 hours is medium. While, chances of development in the next 7 days is high. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please see the Special Features section above for more information about the tropical wave in the central Atlantic associated with AL95. Another tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 04N to 19N with axis near 50W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is depicted at this time in association to this wave. A tropical wave (AL94) is in the western Caribbean south of 18N with axis near 81W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 12N to 19N between 73W and 85W. Some development of this system is possible over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Chances of development in the next 48 hours and 7 days are low. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then curves west- southwestward across 08N21W to 10N48W. The ITCZ continues westward from 10N52W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 09N between 17W and 23W. This convection may be associated with the next tropical wave. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough over the northern Gulf is triggering scattered moderate convection off the coasts of Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extends across the central Gulf anchored by a 1030 mb high near 39N34W. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft dominate the western and north- central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail across the SE Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Fri supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas over the eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the western half of the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase over the southwestern Gulf Fri night through Sun night as a strong tropical wave, with some potential for tropical cyclone development reaches the area. Conditions are forecast to improve on Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for convection associated with the tropical wave over the western Carribbean. Outside the influence of the tropical wave (AL94) and its convection, the gradient between the Atlantic Ridge and the eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough is generating moderate to fresh easterly winds over the central and eastern basin. Seas in the central basin are 6 to 10 ft, while seas 3 to 6 ft prevail in the eastern basin. Light to gentle winds with seas 3 to 5 ft are seen over the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, a tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea, with axis along 81W, continues to produce widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity while it moves westward at about 17 kt. Some development of this system is possible over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. Regardless of development, fresh to strong winds along with mostly rough seas will trail the wave through Fri. As the wave moves west of the area by Fri, expect moderate to fresh trade winds through Mon night, with the exception of light to gentle winds over the southwestern Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information about convection in the deep tropics. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are depicted north of the western Bahamas in association to a weak surface trough in the area. Upper level divergence is supporting scattered to numerous moderate convection north of 25N between 67W and 72.5W. Elsewhere, the Azores High and associated ridge continues to dominate the Atlantic subtropical waters, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas across the region, except for locally fresh NE winds N of 20N between the off coast of W Africa and 20W. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned Bermuda-Azores High will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region during the forecast period producing mainly a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with moderate seas NE of the Bahamas. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase over the SE waters late Sat through Mon as a strong tropical wave, possibly a tropical cyclone, approaches from the E. $$ KRV