000 AXNT20 KNHC 280608 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jun 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in Central America. Latest computer model guidance continues to suggest high precipitation amounts through early next week. As the system continues propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls are expected at the eastern areas of Honduras and Nicaragua through Sunday. These rainfalls will shift over Belize, eastern Guatemala and Southern Mexico along the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend and early next week. It is recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information from their local meteorological weather agencies. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the East Pacific at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall information along the Pacific coastal areas of these nations. Invest AL95: Broad low pressure in the vicinity of a tropical wave near 09N37W is beginning to show signs of organization. With environmental conditions at the central and western Atlantic remains conducive, a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form over the next couple of days. There is a high chance of formation on this system for the next 2 to 7 days, and interests in the Lesser Antilles need to monitor this system closely. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 19W from 08N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 14W and 21W. An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 15N southward through AL95 mentioned in the Special Feature section, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 11N between 34W and 42W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are evident from 07N to 10N between 36W and 39W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 19N southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 16N to 19N between 51W and 53W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from southwest of the Cayman Islands southward through a broad low pressure (AL94) near Honduras-Nicaragua coastal border to eastern Costa Rica. The whole system is drifting westward at 5 kt. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the low. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from the Gulf of Honduras eastward to the Cayman Islands. As this system drifts northwestward over the next few days, some gradual development is possible at the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward across 09N26W to 09N42W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N42W to 10N51W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 04N to 08N between 23W and 31W. No significant convection is near the ITCZ based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends westward from a 1014 mb high at the southeastern Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE to S to SW winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are evident at the western and north-central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the high and related ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf through Fri, supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas over the eastern Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the western Gulf. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase over the central and west-central Gulf Fri night through Sun night as a broad area of low pressure, with some potential for tropical cyclone development reaches the area. Conditions are forecast to improve Mon through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent southerly winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms off the coast of Costa Rica and northern Colombia. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea associated with AL94. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle with locally moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist at the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh trade winds through Mon night, with the exceptions of fresh to strong southeast winds over the far western Caribbean late tonight through Sat night, and light to gentle winds over the southwestern basin. Winds and seas are expected to increase in the eastern basin starting Mon as a strong tropical wave, or possible tropical cyclone, enters the Caribbean. This conditions will spread to the central basin Tue and Tue night as this upcoming system tracks in a general westward direction. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for details on low pressure (AL95) which might become a tropical depression in a couple of days. Two surface troughs over eastern Florida, and east of the Bahamas are triggering widely scattered moderate convection north of 23N between 65W and the Florida coast. A broad, elongated upper-level low near 28N51W is producing widely scattered convection north of 25N between 47W and 54W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A broad surface ridge stretches southwestward from a 1030 mb Azores High across 31N55W across the central Bahamas to the Great Bahama Bank. This feature is promoting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft north of 20N between 25W and 60W. To the west, gentle to moderate SE to S to SSW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted north of 20N between 60W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate north of 14N between the Africa coast and 25W/30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 09N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, except near AL95, moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft exist. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region thru early next week. Anticipate mainly a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with moderate seas northeast of the Bahamas. Looking ahead, winds and seas may begin to increase from 10N to 18N between 35W and 50W from late Sat through Mon in advance of a strong tropical wave. This wave could become a tropical cyclone, while tracking generally westward into the Caribbean Sea Mon through Tue night. $$ Chan