000 AXNT20 KNHC 280837 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jun 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Invest AL95 Gale Warning: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located several hundred nautical miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands near 09.5N38W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 35W and 38W, and from 04N to 12N between 38W and 43W. Winds are currently 20 to 30 kt with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form over the next day or two. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 kt towards the Windward Islands. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation for the next 2 to 7 days. A gale warning has been issued beginning Sat afternoon, with storm conditions possible beginning Sun afternoon as the feature moves into portions of the Tropical N Atlantic offshore waters zones. Building seas will occur with increasing winds. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for further details. Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in Central America. Latest computer model guidance continues to suggest high precipitation amounts through early next week. As the system continues propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls are expected at the eastern areas of Honduras and Nicaragua through Sunday. These rainfalls will shift over Belize, eastern Guatemala and Southern Mexico along the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend and early next week. It is recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information from their local meteorological weather agencies. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the East Pacific at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall information along the Pacific coastal areas of these nations. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W/21W from 13N southward, and moving west at around 15 kt. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 20W and 25W. An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 15N southward through AL95 mentioned in the Special Feature section, and moving west around 10 kt. Associated convection is described above. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W from 20N southward, and moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 16N to 20N between 51W and 54W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W/84W from southwest of the Cayman Islands southward through a broad low pressure (AL94) near Honduras-Nicaragua coastal border to eastern Costa Rica. The whole system is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 12N to 20N between 79W and 86W. Some development of this system is possible over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward across 09N25W through Invest AL95 near 09.5N38W to 11N47W. A diffuse ITCZ continues westward from 11N47W to 11N53W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm of the coast of Africa from 05N to 11N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 26W and 32W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends westward from a 1015 mb high in the east central Gulf near 26N87W. Gentle to moderate southerly return flow dominates the basin, along with seas of 1 to 3 ft, locally 4 ft near 21.5N91W and 29.5N87W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the SW Gulf S of 21N. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through this afternoon supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas over the eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the western half of the basin. Winds and seas may increase over the central and west-central Gulf tonight through Sun night as a broad area of low pressure, with some potential for tropical cyclone development reaches the area. Conditions are forecast to improve Mon through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale warning associated with Invest AL95 and on the potential for heavy rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America. Convergent southerly winds along with the broad low and tropical wave near 83W (AL94) are triggering scattered to numerous thunderstorms south of 19N between 79W and 88W, including over portions of Nicaragua, far eastern Honduras and Belize. Fresh to strong winds are occurring near Invest AL94, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Mainly moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds prevail across the remainder of the basin along with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except gentle to moderate southerly winds in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea will move west-northwestward. Some development of this system is possible over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Expect moderate to fresh trade winds through Mon night, with the exceptions of fresh to strong southeast winds over the far western Caribbean through Sat night, and light to gentle winds over the southwestern Caribbean. As described in the Special Features section, winds and seas are expected to increase in the Tropical N Atlantic Sun, the eastern Caribbean Mon, then the central Caribbean Tue and Tue night as a strong tropical wave, possibly a tropical cyclone, moves through. Storm conditions are possible near this feature in the Tropical N Atlantic Sun evening, spreading westward through time. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Invest AL95 and an associated gale warning. A surface trough is northeast of the Bahamas from 29N72W to 23N75W with scattered thunderstorms from 23N to 26N between 71W and 77W. Additional convection is north of 25N between 62W and 67W. A broad, elongated upper-level low near 28N50W is producing widely scattered convection north of 25N between 48W and 55W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A broad surface ridge stretches southwestward from a 1029 mb Azores High across 31N55W across the central Bahamas to the Great Bahama Bank. This feature is promoting moderate to fresh trades from 10N to 30N between the coast of Africa through the Cabo Verde Islands and 55W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of 10N, with light to gentle winds south of 10N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the area of moderate to fresh trades, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere east of 60W, and 3 to 5 ft west of 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will remain in control of the weather pattern during the forecast period producing mainly a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with moderate seas NE of the Bahamas. Winds and seas may begin to increase over the far southeastern waters late Sat through Mon in advance of a strong tropical wave, possibly a tropical cyclone, that is expected to track in a general westward motion into the Caribbean Sea Mon through Tue night. $$ Lewitsky