000 AXNT20 KNHC 281734 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jun 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Invest AL95 Gale Warning: A low pressure system located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better defined. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 40W and 45W. Winds are currently 20 to 30 kt with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in organization, and if these trends continue, a tropical depression will likely form later today. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 kt and approach the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend, and Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions of that region tonight or early Saturday. There is a HIGH chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 2 to 7 days. A gale warning has been issued beginning Sat morning, with storm conditions possible beginning Sun afternoon as the feature moves into portions of the Tropical N Atlantic offshore waters zones. Building seas will occur with increasing winds. Please read the latest NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK at website www.hurricanes.gov and the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/test/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in Central America. The latest model guidance continues to suggest high precipitation amounts through early next week. As the system continues propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls are expected at the eastern areas of Honduras and Nicaragua through Sunday. These rainfalls will shift over Belize, eastern Guatemala and Southern Mexico along the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend and early next week. It is recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information from their local weather services. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the East Pacific at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall information along the Pacific coastal areas of these nations. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 27W from 13N southward, and moving west at 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. Some slow development of this system is possible next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western tropical Atlantic. This tropical wave has a LOW chance of development through two and seven days. An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 18N southward through AL95 mentioned in the Special Feature section, and moving west around 10-15 kt. Associated convection is described above. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 18N southward, and moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 10N to 13N between 52W and 55W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from the wester tip of Cuba southward through a broad low pressure (AL94), Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. The whole system is moving westward at around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 12N to 22N between 80W and 85W. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong, with locally near-gale force, SE winds across the NW Caribbean north of 15N and west of 80W. Seas have built to 5-8 ft in this same area. This system has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone through the next two and seven days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W, then curves southwestward across 08N24W through Invest AL95 near 09N40W to 09N42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 11N east of 21W. No segments of the ITCZ are evident at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf, outside of a weak surface trough in the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle SE to S winds prevail, with 1-3 ft seas. Moderate SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted in the Yucatán Channel, due to a western Caribbean tropical wave. For the forecast, winds and seas may increase over the central and west-central Gulf tonight through Sun night as a broad area of low pressure, with a low chance of tropical cyclone development reaches the area. Conditions are forecast to improve Mon through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a gale warning associated with Invest AL95 and on the potential for heavy rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America. Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on a western Caribbean Tropical Wave and the associated winds and seas in the NW Caribbean. Outside of the active convection, elevated seas, and high winds in the NW Caribbean, gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure in the NW Caribbean is not expected to develop today while it moves west- northwestward. Expect moderate to fresh trade winds through Mon night, with the exceptions of fresh to strong southeast winds over the far western Caribbean through Sat night, and light to gentle winds over the southwestern Caribbean. Winds and seas are expected to increase in the Tropical N Atlantic Sun, the eastern Caribbean Mon, then the central Caribbean Tue and Tue night as a strong tropical wave, possibly a tropical cyclone, moves through. Storm conditions are possible near this feature in the Tropical N Atlantic Sun evening, spreading westward through time. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Invest AL95 and its GALE WARNING. A weak surface trough is across the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N to 31N between 62W and 70W. The remainder of the Atlantic outside of the Tropical Waves and AL95 is dominated by high pressure centered north of the area. Gentle to moderate trades are north of 20N, and moderate to fresh trades are south of 20N. From 20N to 25N east of 20W, fresh to strong NE winds are noted near the African coast. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will produce gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas NE of the Bahamas. Winds and seas may begin to increase over the far southeastern waters late Sat through Mon in advance of a strong tropical wave, possibly a tropical cyclone, that is expected to track in a general westward motion into the Caribbean Sea Mon through Tue night. $$ Mahoney