000 AXNT20 KNHC 290215 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jun 29 2024 Updated to add Special Feature for Invest AL94 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Tropical Depression Two is centered near 9.1N 41.9W at 28/2100 UTC or 1060 nm ESE of Barbados, moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 42W and 46W. A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or early Saturday and a hurricane in a couple of days. Seas will increase to above 12 ft by Sat afternoon and continue to be rough to very rough over the next few days. Meanwhile, swells generated by the depression are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in Central America. The latest model guidance continues to suggest high precipitation amounts through early next week. As the system continues propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls are expected at the eastern areas of Honduras and Nicaragua through Sunday. These rainfalls will shift over Belize, eastern Guatemala and Southern Mexico along the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend and early next week. It is recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information from their local weather services. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the East Pacific at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall information along the Pacific coastal areas of these nations. Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94): A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea continues to produce widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of this low is not anticipated before it moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. The system is then forecast to move west-northwestward, emerging over the Bay of Campeche Saturday night or early Sunday, where conditions appear generally conducive for further development. A tropical depression could form before the system moves inland again early next week over Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W from 13N southward, and moving west 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. Slow development of this system is possible next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 kt across the central and western tropical Atlantic. This tropical wave has a LOW chance of development through two and seven days. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 18N southward, and moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 09N to 14N between 53W and 59W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W from the western tip of Cuba southward through a broad low pressure (AL94), Honduras and Nicaragua. The whole system is moving westward at around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 12N to 22N between 79W and 87W. Earlier satellite scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong, with locally near- gale force, SE winds across the NW Caribbean north of 15N and west of 80W. Seas have built to 5-8 ft in this same area. This system has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone through the next two and seven days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W, then curves southwestward across 07N23W to 09N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 11N east of 38W. No segments of the ITCZ are evident at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Invest AL94. Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf, outside of a weak surface trough in the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail, with 1-3 ft seas. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted in the Yucatán Channel, due to a western Caribbean tropical wave. For the forecast, winds and seas may increase over the central and west- central Gulf tonight through Sun night as a broad area of low pressure, with some potential for tropical cyclone development reaches the area. Conditions are forecast to improve Mon through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a gale warning associated with Invest AL95 and on the potential for heavy rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Invest AL94. Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on a western Caribbean Tropical Wave and the associated winds and seas in the NW Caribbean. Outside of the active convection, elevated seas, and high winds in the NW Caribbean, gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast, newly formed Tropical Depression Two is near 9.1N 41.9W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Two will strengthen to a tropical storm near 9.4N 44.5W Sat morning, move to 10.1N 48.0W Sat afternoon, 10.7N 51.5W Sun morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 11.3N 54.8W Sun afternoon, 12.0N 58.2W Mon morning, and 13.0N 61.9W Mon afternoon. Two will change little in intensity as it moves to near 15.5N 69.2W Tue afternoon. Elsewhere, an area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea associated with a tropical wave continues to produce widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of this disturbance is not expected today while it moves west- northwestward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Invest AL95 and TD Two. A weak surface trough is across the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is from 24N to 30N between 65W and 75W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 25N to 30N between 51W and 55W. The remainder of the Atlantic outside of the Tropical Waves and TD Two is dominated by high pressure centered north of the area. Gentle to moderate trades are north of 20N, and moderate to fresh trades are south of 20N. From 20N to 25N east of 20W, fresh to strong NE winds are noted near the African coast. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will produce gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas NE of the Bahamas. Winds and seas may begin to increase over the far southeastern waters late Sat through Mon in advance of newly formed Tropical Depression Two, that is expected to track in a general westward motion into the Caribbean Sea Mon through Tue night. $$ AReinhart/JRL