000 AXNT20 KNHC 290916 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jun 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 9.8N 45.5W at 29/0900 UTC or 850 nm ESE of Barbados, moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently 13 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the E semicircle and 210 nm in the W semicircle of Beryl. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Beryl is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Sunday. A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas. Swells generated by the system are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more detail. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Beryl, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Invest AL94): A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 21N between 81W and 90W. Development of this low is not anticipated before it moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula later today. The system is then forecast to move west- northwestward, emerging over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear generally conducive for further development. A tropical depression could form before the system moves inland again early next week over Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. There is a medium chance this system might develop further while in the Bay of Campeche. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more details. Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in the northern part of Central America. The latest model guidance continues to suggest high precipitation amounts through Tue. As the system continues propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls are expected at Belize, eastern Guatemala and northeastern Yucatan Peninsula through this weekend. These rains could shift northwestward over the coastal areas of Mexico along the Gulf of Mexico early next week. It is recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information from their local weather services. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the East Pacific at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall information along the Pacific coastal areas of Central America. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 13N southward, or several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 01N to 10N between 21W and 35W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 for more details. A western Atlantic tropical wave is just east of Barbados near 58W/59W from 20N southward into Guyana, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 10N to 14N between 55W and 68W, with additional convection over much of Venezuela. A western Caribbean tropical wave (AL94) is near 87W/88W from the western Yucatan Channel southward near Cozumel and through the Gulf of Honduras into Honduras and Nicaragua. It is moving west- northwestward at around 10 kt. Refer to the Special Features section for wind and sea conditions, convection and potential for tropical development. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward across 10N20W to 07N37W. No ITCZ is present in the Atlantic due to disruption by Tropical Storm Beryl. Scattered moderate convection is found from 05N to 10N between 14W and 21W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Invest AL94. A broad surface ridge extends along 28N per overnight ASCAT scatterometer data. Fresh to locally strong E to ESE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are evident at the south-central Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to locally fresh ESE to SSE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge along 28N and a broad area of low pressure over the NW Caribbean Sea near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula accompanied by a tropical wave will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and building seas spreading from the Yucatan Channel west-northwest through the weekend. The system is then forecast to move west- northwestward, emerging over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Sun, where conditions appear generally conducive for further development, with the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Gentle winds should prevail in the NE Gulf through the weekend. Conditions are forecast to improve across the basin Mon through Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about Tropical Storm Beryle, AL94 and heavy rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America. Convergent southeasterly winds are triggering scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms south of Cuba, and near Jamaica and the Windward Passage. Other than the northwestern basin mentioned in the Special Features section, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl is near 9.8N 45.5W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Beryl will move to 10.3N 48.1W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 11.0N 51.6W Sun morning, 11.6N 55.0W Sun afternoon, 12.4N 58.4W Mon morning, 13.3N 62.0W Mon afternoon, and 14.4N 65.7W Tue morning. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to 16.8N 73.0W early Wed, then to then to 19.0N 79.0W early Thu. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure over the NW Caribbean Sea accompanied by a tropical wave will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and building seas in the NW Caribbean through the Yucatan Channel through tonight. The system is then forecast to move west-northwestward, emerging over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Sun, where conditions appear generally conducive for further development, with the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail, pulsing to fresh to strong in the central Caribbean as a tropical wave moves through later in the weekend into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Beryl. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for details on convection in the Atlantic Basin. A broad surface ridge stretches southwestward from a 1030 mb Azores High across 31N38W to just north of the northern Bahamas. This feature is supporting gentle to moderate E to ESE winds across the waters north of 25N and west of 25W. Moderate to fresh trades are found from 10N to 25N from the coast of Africa through the Cabo Verde Islands, to across the tropical Atlantic to the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate winds are south of 10N. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 25N and west of 55W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft from 10N to 20N between 35W and 50W in mixed swells from Beryl, and 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast west of 55W, Ridging will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N through the next several days. A decaying cold front may drop south of 31N Tue through Wed. Meanwhile, the ridge will support moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N into early next week. Tropical Storm Beryl is near 9.8N 45.5W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Beryl will move to 10.3N 48.1W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 11.0N 51.6W Sun morning, 11.6N 55.0W Sun afternoon, 12.4N 58.4W Mon morning, 13.3N 62.0W Mon afternoon, and 14.4N 65.7W Tue morning. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to 16.8N 73.0W early Wed, then to then to 19.0N 79.0W early Thu. $$ Lewitsky