000 AXNT20 KNHC 291751 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jun 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 10.0N 48.4W at 29/1800 UTC or 680 nm ESE of Barbados, moving W at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently 15 ft. Satellite imagery indicate an expanding central dense overcast feature. Showers and thunderstorms are also organized in curved bands on the west side of the circulation of Beryl. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for rapid strengthening and shows Beryl becoming a major hurricane before moving across the Windward Islands. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas. Swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Invest AL94): A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear generally conducive for further development. A tropical depression could form before the system moves inland again early next week over Mexico. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in the northern part of Central America. A 1007 mb low pressure is analyzed near 18.5N88.5W. Currently, a cluster of moderate to strong convection is near the low center affecting northern Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula while a band-like of showers and thunderstorms extends from the Atlantic coast of Nicaragua all the way northward to near Cancun, Mexico. The latest model guidance continues to suggest high precipitation amounts over Mexico and northern Central America through Tue. As the system continues propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls are expected at Belize, Quintana Roo, Guatemala and southern Mexico through this weekend. These rains could shift northwestward over the coastal areas of Mexico along the Gulf of Mexico early next week. It is recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information from their local weather services. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the East Pacific at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall information along the Pacific coastal areas of Central America. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from 13N southward, or several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is on either side of the wave axis from 04N to 09N between 26W and 33W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles with axis along 61W/62W from 19N southward into Ne Venezuela, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted mainly on the E side of the wave axis from 08N to 13N between 57W and 63W. Another tropical wave (AL94) is near 88W, and extends from the eastern Yucatan Peninsula southward across Belize, western Honduras and El Salvador. It is moving west-northwestward at around 10 kt. Refer to the Special Features section for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of The Gambia near 13.5N16.5W, then continues southwestward to 10N21W to 07N40W. No ITCZ is present in the Atlantic due to disruption by Tropical Storm Beryl. Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 11N between 17W and 26W, and from 03N to 07N between 33W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Invest AL94 forecast to likely affect Mexico early next week. A ridge dominates the Gulf waters, with a 1018 mb high pressure located W of Tampa Bay, FL near 28N84W. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally strong E to ESE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft over the south-central Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and a broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and building seas spreading from the Yucatan Channel west-northwest through the weekend. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward, where conditions appear generally conducive for further development. A tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico early next week. Conditions are forecast to improve across the Gulf waters Mon through Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about Tropical Storm Beryl, and the Invest Area AL94. Satellite derived wind data show moderate to fresh winds over the east and central Caribbean while fresh to strong SE winds prevail in the NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the SW portion of the basin. Seas are 8 to 11 ft W of 85W with the strongest winds, and 6 to 8 ft N of 16N and W of 83W. Elsewhere seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in SW Caribbean over the NW Caribbean. A tropical wave is generating showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Islands. Please, see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more details. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl is near 10.0N 47.8W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Beryl will strengthen to a hurricane near 10.4N 50.5W this evening, move to 11.1N 53.8W Sun morning, 11.8N 57.3W Sun evening, 12.6N 60.8W Mon morning, 13.7N 64.3W Mon evening, and 14.9N 68.3W Tue morning. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to near 17.0N 75.5W early Wed. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and building seas in the NW Caribbean through the Yucatan Channel through tonight. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail, pulsing to fresh to strong in the central Caribbean later in the weekend into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Beryl. Th Bermuda-Azores High dominates the Atlantic forecast waters. A couple of weak troughs are noted. One is E of Florida and extends from near 31N79W to SE Florida. The other one is related to an upper-level low and runs from 30N68W to 25N71W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of these troughs. The pressure gradient between the Azores High and T.S. Beryl supports an area of fresh to strong NE winds from 12N to 20N between 47W and 54W based on scatterometer data. Seas are 5 to 7 Ft within these winds per altimeter data. A belt of moderate to fresh trade winds is noted elsewhere roughly from 15N to 25N E of 55W to the W coast of Africa with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft with the exception of 1 to 3 ft N of 25N and W of 70W, including the NW and central Bahamas. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N, through the next several days. Tropical Storm Beryl is near 10.0N 47.8W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Beryl will strengthen to a hurricane near 10.4N 50.5W this evening, move to 11.1N 53.8W Sun morning, 11.8N 57.3W Sun evening, 12.6N 60.8W Mon morning, 13.7N 64.3W Mon evening, and 14.9N 68.3W Tue morning. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to near 17.0N 7.5W early Wed. A decaying cold front may drop south of 31N Tue through Wed. $$ GR