000 AXNT20 KNHC 300129 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jun 30 2024 Corrected to update Hurricane Beryl Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Beryl is near 10.2N 50.3W at 8 PM EDT, and is moving west at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Peak seas are 22 ft near the center. Satellite imagery indicate an expanding central dense overcast feature. Showers and thunderstorms are also organized in curved bands on the west side of the circulation of Beryl. Beryl is expected to take a relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Continued steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a dangerous major hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas. Showers and thunderstorms well north of Beryl may produce 1 to 4 inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday night into Tuesday. Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible. Meanwhile, swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Invest AL94): A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear generally conducive for further development. A tropical depression could form before the system moves inland again early next week over Mexico. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in the northern part of Central America. Currently, a cluster of moderate to strong convection is near the low center affecting northern Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula while a band-like of showers and thunderstorms extends from the Atlantic coast of Nicaragua all the way northward to near Cancun, Mexico. The latest model guidance continues to suggest high precipitation amounts over Mexico and northern Central America through Tue. As the system continues propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls are expected at Belize, Quintana Roo, Guatemala and southern Mexico through this weekend. These rains could shift northwestward over the coastal areas of Mexico along the Gulf of Mexico early next week. It is recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information from their local weather services. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the East Pacific at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall information along the Pacific coastal areas of Central America. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 12N southward, or several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is on either side of the wave axis from 04N to 10N between 29W and 33W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This system has a low chance of development in 48 hours and a high chance of development in 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles with axis along 62W from 18N southward into NE Venezuela, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted from 11N to 16N between 60W and 67W. Another tropical wave (AL94) is near 90W, and extends from the eastern Yucatan Peninsula southward across Belize, western Honduras and El Salvador. It is moving west-northwestward at around 10 kt. Refer to the Special Features section for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 11N16W to 06N37W. The ITCZ extends from 06N37W to 09N44W and then from 09N52W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 11N between 20W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Invest AL94 forecast to likely affect Mexico early next week. A ridge dominates the Gulf waters, with high pressure located over northern Florida. Fresh to strong E to ESE winds and seas at 5 to 9 ft over the south- central Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge along the Gulf coast states and a broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and building seas spreading from the Yucatan Channel west-northwest through the remainder of the weekend. The system is forecast to move west- northwestward, where conditions appear generally conducive for further development. A tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico early next week. Conditions are forecast to improve across the basin Mon through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about Tropical Storm Beryl, and the Invest Area AL94. Satellite derived wind data show moderate to fresh winds over the east and central Caribbean while fresh to strong SE winds prevail in the NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the SW portion of the basin. Seas are 8 to 10 ft W of 85W with the strongest winds. Elsewhere seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in SW Caribbean over the NW Caribbean. A tropical wave is generating showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Islands. Please, see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more details. For the forecast, Newly upgraded Hurricane Beryl is near 10.1N 49.3W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west at 19 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Beryl will move to 10.6N 51.9W Sun morning, 11.3N 55.3W Sun afternoon, 12.0N 58.7W Mon morning, 13.1N 62.3W Mon afternoon, 14.3N 66.0W Tue morning, and 15.5N 69.8W Tue afternoon. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to near 17.3N 77.2W Wed afternoon. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and building seas in the NW Caribbean through the Yucatan Channel through tonight. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail, pulsing to fresh to strong in the central Caribbean later in the weekend into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Beryl. Th Bermuda-Azores High dominates the Atlantic forecast waters. A trough related to an upper-level low runs from 30N76W to 25N78W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of this troughs. The pressure gradient between the Azores High and T.S. Beryl supports an area of fresh to strong NE winds from 12N to 20N between 47W and 54W based on earlier scatterometer data. Seas are 5 to 7 Ft within these winds per altimeter data. A belt of moderate to fresh trade winds is noted elsewhere roughly from 15N to 25N E of 55W to the W coast of Africa with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft with the exception of 1 to 3 ft N of 25N and W of 70W, including the NW and central Bahamas. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N, through the next several days. Newly upgraded Hurricane Beryl is near 10.1N 49.3W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west at 19 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Beryl will move to 10.6N 51.9W Sun morning, 11.3N 55.3W Sun afternoon, 12.0N 58.7W Mon morning, 13.1N 62.3W Mon afternoon, 14.3N 66.0W Tue morning, and 15.5N 69.8W Tue afternoon. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to near 17.3N 77.2W Wed afternoon A decaying cold front may drop south of 31N Tue through Wed. $$ AReinhart/Delgado