000 AXNT20 KNHC 301743 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jun 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Beryl is centered near 10.9N 55.6W at 30/1800 UTC or 270 nm ESE of Barbados, moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are currently to 37 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm from the center in all quadrants. A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late Monday through Wednesday. Beryl is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Beryl is expected to remain a category 4 hurricane as it moves through Windward Islands. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the Windward Islands tonight and Monday. Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Invest AL94): Satellite derived winds and preliminary aircraft reconnaissance data indicate that the area of low pressure located over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche has become better organized during the past few hours and a tropical depression could be forming. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is south of 24N between 91W and 97W. Current winds are 20 to 30 kt with occasionally higher gusts, and seas of 8 to 11 ft. The system is moving toward west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt and is expected to approach the eastern coast of Mexico tonight and move inland on Monday morning. Consequently, a Tropical Storm Watch may be required later today for a portion of the eastern coast of Mexico. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will result in areas of flooding across eastern Mexico today and into Monday, with mudslides possible in areas of higher terrain. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the system. This system has a HIGH chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours and 7 days. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.Winds are currently 15-20 kt with seas of 5 to 7 ft. This system has a MEDIUM chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours and a HIGH chance of development in the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for the latest on both Invest AL94 and AL96. Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in the northern part of Central America. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is currently affecting portions of southern and SE Mexico and western Central America. The latest model guidance continues to suggest high precipitation amounts over Mexico and northern Central America through Tue. As the system continues propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls are expected at Belize, Quintana Roo, Guatemala and southern Mexico through this weekend. These rains could shift northwestward over the coastal areas of Mexico along the Gulf of Mexico early in the week. It is recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information from their local weather services. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the East Pacific at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall information along the Pacific coastal areas of Central America. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave associated with Invest AL96 is along 33W, south of 12N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 28W and 43W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W, from Hispaniola southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with the tropical wave. 1200 UTC Upper Air Sounding Data from San Juan and Santo Domingo were especially helpful in analyzing the wave position this morning. A Bay of Campeche tropical wave associated with AL94 is along 93W, south of 24N, moving west at 5 kt. Refer to SPECIAL FEATURES for convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 15N18W to 06N43W. Convection is described in the Tropical Waves section. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on Invest AL94. Outside of AL94 in the Bay of Campeche, moderate to fresh E winds prevail west of 90W with 5-7 ft seas. East of 90W, E winds are gentle to moderate with 2-4 ft seas. 1022 mb high pressure is centered in SE Louisiana. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge along the Gulf coast states and a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and large seas NW of the Yucatan Peninsula to the west-central Gulf with occasional gusts to gale force. Conditions appear generally conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico on Mon morning. Meanwhile, distant Hurricane Beryl in the Tropical N Atlantic may reach the NW Caribbean on Thu, with tropical storm conditions possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and the E Bay of Campeche by Thu. Beryl is forecast to be near 17.8N 82.8W early Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for the latest details on MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL located east of the Windward Islands and Invest AL96 located in the eastern Atlantic. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the Caribbean, with locally fresh speeds detected by satellite scatterometer in the central Caribbean and Atlantic passages within the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Beryl will move to 11.2N 57.5W this evening, 12.1N 60.9W Mon morning, 13.3N 64.3W Mon evening, 14.6N 68.2W Tue morning, 15.6N 72.1W Tue evening, and 16.4N 75.9W Wed morning. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to near 17.8N 82.8W early Thu. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds southeast of the Yucatan will diminish by early Mon morning. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the central Caribbean through Tue morning in advance of Beryl. A surge of fresh to strong winds may move into the tropical N Atlantic Tue night through Wed, then into the E Caribbean thereafter, associated with an area of low pressure which has the potential for tropical cyclone formation. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL and Invest AL96 in the eastern Atlantic. A surface trough parallels the Florida Coast along 79W, just west of the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N to 29N between 77W and 83W, including the Florida Straits. The remainder of the Atlantic is guided by the subtropical Bermuda-Azores High Pressure centered north of the area. Satellite scatterometer data from this morning indicates gentle to moderate trades across the basin, with 4-7 ft seas in open waters. Fresh to strong trades are south of 20N and west of 50W, north of Hurricane Beryl. Fresh to strong NE winds are near the coast of Africa from 20N to 28N, east of 20W, including the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, ridging will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N, locally strong north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola at times, through the next several days. Hurricane Beryl will move to 11.2N 57.5W this evening, 12.1N 60.9W Mon morning, 13.3N 64.3W Mon evening, 14.6N 68.2W Tue morning, 15.6N 72.1W Tue evening, and 16.4N 75.9W Wed morning. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to near 17.8N 82.8W early Thu. A decaying cold front may drop south of 31N Tue through Wed. $$ Mahoney