625 AXNT20 KNHC 302226 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jul 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Beryl is centered near 11.1N 56.5W at 30/2100 UTC or 220 nm SE of Barbados, moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are currently near 37 ft. A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late Monday through Wednesday.Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, and Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane through landfall in the Windward Islands. Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov Newly upgraded Tropical Depression Three is centered near 19.7N 94.9W at 30/2100 UTC or 160 nm ESE of Tuxpan Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 11 ft. The depression will continue moving west until it dissipates over eastern Mexico late Monday. TD Three is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches across portions of eastern Mexico into Monday, with localized maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will result in areas of flooding, with mudslides possible in areas of higher terrain. Seas are expected to continue to be around 11 ft through early Mon morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Three NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a MEDIUM chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours and a HIGH chance of development in the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for the latest on Invest AL96. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave associated with Invest AL96 is along 34W, south of 12N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 30W and 36W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W, from Hispaniola southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 67W and 73W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W to 09N23W to 05N44W. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 30W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Three. Outside of Tropical Depression Three in the Bay of Campeche, fresh to strong E winds prevail west of 90W with 5-7 ft seas. East of 90W, E winds are gentle to moderate with 2-4 ft seas. 1022 mb high pressure is centered in SE Louisiana, leading to gentle to moderate winds S of 26N and light to gentle winds N of 26N. Seas are 2 to 4 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the Florida, Mississippi and SE Louisiana coast. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Three is near 19.7N 94.9W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Three will strengthen to a tropical storm near 20.0N 96.6W Mon morning, weaken to a remnant low near 20.2N 99.4W Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue morning. The pressure gradient between a ridge along the Gulf coast states and the newly upgraded tropical depression is supporting an area of fresh to strong winds across the Gulf waters S of 25N and W of 91W where seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range. Marine conditions are forecast to gradually improve later on Mon as the tropical cyclone moves inland. Meanwhile, distant Hurricane Beryl in the Tropical N Atlantic may reach the NW Caribbean on Thu, with tropical storm conditions possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Yucatan Channel and the E Bay of Campeche. Beryl is forecast to be near 18.8N 84.4W Thu afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for the latest details on MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL located east of the Windward Islands and Invest AL96 located in the eastern Atlantic. Fresh to strong trade winds are noted off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong winds are also occurring in the central and eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, moderate trade winds prevail. Seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Beryl is near 11.1N 56.5W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Beryl will move to 11.7N 59.1W Mon morning, 12.8N 62.6W Mon afternoon, 14.2N 66.3W Tue morning, 15.4N 70.2W Tue afternoon, 16.4N 74.0W Wed morning, and 17.3N 77.7W Wed afternoon. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to near 18.8N 84.4W Thu afternoon. Meanwhile, fresh to strong E to SE are expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the central Caribbean through Tue morning in advance of Beryl. A surge of fresh to strong winds may move into the tropical N Atlantic Tue night through Wed, then into the E Caribbean thereafter, associated with an area of low pressure which has the potential for tropical cyclone formation. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL and Invest AL96 in the eastern Atlantic. A surface trough parallels the Florida Coast along 79W, just west of the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N to 28N between 77W and 82W, including the Florida Straits. The remainder of the Atlantic is guided by the subtropical Bermuda-Azores High Pressure centered north of the area. Satellite scatterometer data from this morning indicates gentle to moderate trades across the basin, with 4-7 ft seas in open waters. Fresh to strong trades are south of 20N and west of 50W, north of Hurricane Beryl. Fresh to strong NE winds are near the coast of Africa from 20N to 28N, east of 20W, including the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, ridging will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N, locally strong north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola at times, through the next several days. Hurricane Beryl is near 11.1N 56.5W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Beryl will move to 11.7N 59.1W Mon morning, 12.8N 62.6W Mon afternoon, 14.2N 66.3W Tue morning, 15.4N 70.2W Tue afternoon, 16.4N 74.0W Wed morning, and 17.3N 77.7W Wed afternoon. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to near 18.8N 84.4W Thu afternoon. A decaying cold front may drop south of 31N Tue through Wed. $$ AReinhart