000 AXNT20 KNHC 010907 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jul 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Beryl is centered near 11.7N 59.9W at 01/0900 UTC or 110 nm ESE of Grenada, moving W at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are currently around 38 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the E semicircle and 120 nm in the W semicircle. A band of scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present between 120 nm and 330 nm in the NW quadrant. A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands this morning and across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late today through Wednesday. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean. Some weakening is expected in the central Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the Windward Islands today. Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov Tropical Storm Chris is centered near 20.1N 97.2W at 01/0900 UTC or 60 nm SSE of Tuxpan Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 13 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 23N between 90W and 100W. On the forecast track, the center of Chris will continue farther inland over eastern Mexico through today. Weakening is expected as Chris moves farther inland, and the system will likely dissipate over the higher terrain later today. Heavy rainfall will result in areas of flooding across portions of eastern Mexico this morning, with mudslides possible in areas of higher terrain. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Three NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a 1010 mb area of low pressure located about 1000 nautical miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands near 08N36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 32W and 41W. An overnight scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong winds in association with this system. Peak seas are currently near 8 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 kt across the central and western tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a MEDIUM chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours and a HIGH chance of development in the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for the latest on Invest AL96. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W/38W, south of 13N, moving westward at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure (Invest 96L) is along the wave trough near 08N36W. Associated convection is described in the Special Features section. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, south of 20N from the Windward Passage to central Colombia, moving westward at around 15 kt. A small area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 16N between 71W and 73W with additional deep convection present over portions of Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of near the border of Mauritania and Senegal at 17N16W through 10N26W to Invest 96L near 08N36W to 06N50W. No ITCZ axis is currently present in the tropical Atlantic due to nearby Hurricane Beryl. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 11N between 10W and 19W, and from 04N to 08.5N between 25W and 31W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 42W and 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for the latest details on Tropical Storm Chris located inland in Veracruz, Mexico. Outside of Tropical Storm Chris located inland in Veracruz, weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level trough over the eastern United States is producing showers and isolated thunderstorms along the northern and NE Gulf coast, affecting the nearshore waters. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are occurring in the south of 27N and west of 90W. Seas in these waters are 4 to 7 ft away from the influence of Chris. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Chris is inland over Veracruz, Mexico near 20.1N 97.2W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Chris will dissipate this afternoon. Meanwhile gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the NE half of the Gulf for the start of the week. Marine conditions will improve in the SW half of the Gulf later today in the wake of Chris, with ridging and gentle to moderate winds prevailing across the basin through early Thu. Thereafter, distant Hurricane Beryl currently approaching the eastern Caribbean is forecast to be in the NW Caribbean Thu. Hurricane Beryl is near 11.8N 59.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Beryl is forecast to be near 17.4N 81.2W Thu morning, then to near 18.4N 87.6W over the Yucatan Peninsula early Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for the latest details on Major Hurricane Beryl approaching the Windward Islands and Invest 96L located in the central Atlantic. High pressure ridging dominates the waters north of the basin. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft are in the central Caribbean, highest just offshore northern Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trades and slight to moderate seas dominate the remainder of the basin, except light to gentle in the SW Caribbean south of 10N. A weak surface trough over the NW Bahamas and divergence aloft result in scattered showers affecting Cuba and nearby waters. For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl is near 11.8N 59.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Beryl will move to 12.6N 62.4W this afternoon, 13.9N 66.1W Tue morning, 15.1N 70.0W Tue afternoon, 16.0N 73.9W Wed morning, 16.8N 77.7W Wed afternoon, and 17.4N 81.2W Thu morning. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.4N 87.6W early Fri. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the central Caribbean through Tue morning in advance of Beryl. A surge of fresh to strong winds may move into the tropical N Atlantic Tue night through Wed, then into the eastern and central Caribbean thereafter, associated with an area of low pressure which has the potential for tropical cyclone formation. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for the latest details on Major Hurricane Beryl approaching the Windward Islands and Invest 96L located in the central Atlantic. An expansive and strong Bermuda-Azores high pressure system dominates the tropical Atlantic. A couple of weak surface troughs in the SW North Atlantic result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between the western Bahamas and Florida, as well as NE of the central Bahamas. Gentle to moderate trades dominate the waters north of 20N and west of 25W. Moderate to fresh trades are found south of 20N and west of 30W outside of the influence of both Beryl and 96L. Typical fresh to strong NE winds are north of 19N between Africa and 25W where seas are mainly 6 to 9 ft, highest northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gentle to moderate winds are southeast of the monsoon trough. Mainly 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the waters, except 2 to 4 ft north of 25N and west of 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Beryl is south of the area near 11.8N 59.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Beryl is forecast to remain south of the area in the Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, ridging will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N, locally strong north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola at times, through the next several days. A decaying cold front may drop south of 31N Tue through Wed, potentially stalling and lingering near 29N/30N through the end of the week. $$ Lewitsky