000 AXNT20 KNHC 020006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jul 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Beryl, now a dangerous Category 4 Hurricane is centered near 13.2N 63.2W at 01/2100 UTC or 110 nm NW of Grenada, moving WNW at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. Peak seas are currently around 42 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted up to 90 nm from the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 11N to 19N between 60W and 68W. The center of Beryl will continue moving away from the southern Windward Islands tonight and move quickly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight through Tuesday and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane as its moves over the eastern Caribbean. Some weakening is expected in the central Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more detail. For the latest Beryl and remnants of Chris NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information. Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A 1012 mb area of low pressure related to a tropical wave is located near 10N40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 39W and 48W. Peak seas are currently around 10 ft near the center. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western tropical Atlantic. This system has a MEDIUM chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 3 to 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more detail. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 19N and with axis near 78W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is found S of 19N between 75W and the Honduras/Nicaragua coast. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Mauritania coast near 20N16W through 11N30W and Invest AL96 to 07N49W. Aside from the convection associated with AL96, scattered heavy showers and tstms are ongoing from 05N to 12N between 13W and 29W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient across the basin due to surface ridging over the NW Gulf and E of the Florida Peninsula is supporting light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas, except for moderate NE winds off the Yucatan Peninsula. Peak seas to 6 ft are over E Mexico adjacent waters, associated with the remnants of former Tropical Depression Chris. A surface trough in the NE basin is supporting scattered moderate convection in that region. Similar convection is off the Yucatan Peninsula into the E Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, expect a weak high pressure ridge and gentle to moderate winds to prevail across the basin through early Thu. Thereafter, distant Hurricane Beryl, currently moving across the southeast Caribbean, is forecast to be in the NW Caribbean on Thu and enter the Yucatan Peninsula Fri morning near 19N 88.5W. Beryl is then expected to move across the Yucatan and enter the Gulf of Mexico waters in the vicinity of Campeche Fri afternoon as a tropical storm, then turn more NW and reach near 21N 94W Sat afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about dangerous Hurricane Beryl over the E Caribbean. Dangerous Hurricane Beryl is near 13.2N 63.2W at 2100 UTC moving WNW or 290 DEG at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 130 kt with gusts 160 kt. Minimum central pressure is 944 MB. The other feature of interest is a tropical wave over the SW Caribbean, supporting fresh to strong trades over that region as well as the south-central basin. Over the NW Caribbean trades are gentle to moderate and seas are moderate. For the forecast, Beryl will continue to move WNW through Wed, reaching near 14.1N 66W tonight, near 16.3N 73.6W Tue night, near 17.9N 80.8W Wed night, then inland across the Yucatan Peninsula near 19.0N 88.5W by Fri morning. Beryl is expected to weaken slowly Tue afternoon through landfall on Fri. A surge of fresh to strong winds and squalls is expected to move across the tropical N Atlantic Tue night through Wed, then across the eastern and central Caribbean Wed through Fri, associated with a tropical wave, AL96, which has the potential for tropical cyclone formation during that time. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about Invest AL96 in the central Atlantic. Hurricane Beryl is south of the area near 13.2N 63.2W at 2100 UTC moving WNW or 290 DEG at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 130 kt with gusts 160 kt. Minimum central pressure is 944 MB. Otherwise, the Azores High associated ridge covers the subtropical Atlantic waters supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds, except for gentle to moderate S to SE winds E of the central and northern Bahamas. For the forecast west of 55W, Beryl will continue to move WNW and across the Caribbean through late Thu, and inland across the Yucatan Peninsula Thu night, remaining south of the area. Otherwise, central Atlantic high pressure will extend a ridge southwestward to N Florida to support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N. Winds and seas will be locally strong north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the next several days as Beryl moves through the Caribbean. A decaying cold front may drop south of 31N Tue night through Wed night, potentially stalling and lingering near 30N through the end of the week. $$ Ramos