000 AXNT20 KNHC 040601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jul 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0555 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Beryl is centered near 18.3N 80.1W at 04/0300 UTC or 95 nm SE of Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands, moving WNW at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Numerous strong convection is observed within 60 nm from the center and scattered moderate convection is present within 200 nm from the center, especially in the NE quadrant. Peak seas are currently near 25 ft. Beryl is moving west-northwestward and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, taking the core of Beryl just south of the Cayman Islands overnight and over the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and turn northwestward. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or two, however, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it passes by the Cayman Islands. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane until it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. The broad tropical wave is embedded in dry Saharan air, suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave (Invest 96L) is along 64W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Fresh to strong easterly winds associated with this wave cover much of the eastern Caribbean. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is found in the eastern Caribbean. Peak seas are currently near 8 ft. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph across the Caribbean Sea during the next several days. This system is then forecast to cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enter the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by early next week where some development could occur. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Greater Antilles over the next few days. The chance of formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days is low. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 13N29W and then to 05N39W. The ITCZ extends from 05N39W to 10N50W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 03N to 07N and between 33W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on Hurricane Beryl, forecast to enter the Gulf early Fri. A few showers over the Big Bend region of Florida extend into the nearshore waters of the NE Gulf of Mexico. Generally dry conditions prevail elsewhere. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found in the SE Gulf, including the Florida Straits and eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl is near 18.3N 80.1W at 2 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 110 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Beryl will move to 18.5N 81.9W Thu morning, 19.1N 85.1W Thu evening, 19.8N 87.9W Fri morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 90.4W Fri evening, 21.7N 92.5W Sat morning, and 22.8N 94.3W Sat evening. Beryl will strengthen to a hurricane over 24.6N 97.1W late Sun. There remains some uncertainty in the track forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on Hurricane Beryl. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Most of the basin is under the influence of Hurricane Beryl, located SE of the Cayman Islands, and Invest 96L, positioned in the eastern Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-11 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas are occurring in the NW Caribbean, west of 83W, and SW Caribbean. For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl is moving into the NW Caribbean and is forecast to remain away from the Atlantic basin. Otherwise, central Atlantic high pressure extends a weak ridge southwestward to N Florida to support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N. Winds and seas will be locally strong north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage through early Fri as Beryl exits the Caribbean. Meanwhile, a decaying cold front from 30N to 31N will sink south to 29N through early Thu, then stall and dissipate through Fri night. High pressure will build westward and into the Bahamas over the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on the waves moving across the basin. A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N62W and continues to 29N70W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 31N75W. Scattered moderate convection is seen on satellite imagery north of 27N and between 56W and 66W. Moderate to locally fresh W-SW winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found in the waters described. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive 1028 mb high pressure system centered near 42N36W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and Hurricane Beryl supports fresh to strong easterly winds between the Bahamas and Cuba and Hispaniola, including the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 6-9 ft are present south of 20N and west of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Beryl is near 18.3N 80.1W at 2 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 110 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Beryl will move to 18.5N 81.9W Thu morning, 19.1N 85.1W Thu evening, 19.8N 87.9W Fri morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 90.4W Fri evening, 21.7N 92.5W Sat morning, and 22.8N 94.3W Sat evening. Beryl will strengthen to a hurricane over 24.6N 97.1W late Sun. A surge of fresh to strong winds, rough seas, and numerous squalls is expected to move across the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri, associated with a strong tropical wave. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will then prevail across much of the central and NW Caribbean this weekend. $$ Delgado