000 AXNT20 KNHC 051003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jul 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Beryl is centered near 20.1N 86.9W at 05/0900 UTC or 30 nm E of Tulum Mexico, moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Seas of 12 ft or greater extend 180 nm in the NE quadrant, 120 nm in SE quadrant and 60 nm in the W semicircle with seas to 35 ft. A WNW motion is expected during the next day or so, with the center expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula in the next few hours. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and then move northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the end of the weekend. Rapid weakening is expected after Beryl moves inland and crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, but slow reintensification is expected once Beryl moves back over the Gulf of Mexico. Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late today. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 11N and between 37W and 42W. The broad tropical wave is embedded in dry Saharan air, which is currently suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms north of 12N. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, south of 20N, from Hispaniola into eastern Colombia, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 17N and between 70W and 76W. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are occurring near this wave, including near the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 08N26W. The ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 07N41W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 37W and 59W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on Hurricane Beryl, located near the NE Yucatan peninsula. The outermost northern squalls of Hurricane Beryl are affecting the southern Gulf of Mexico waters, with the stronger convection noted in the Yucatan Channel. Generally dry conditions prevail in the rest of the basin. Aside from Beryl, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the Gulf. For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl is near 20.1N 86.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Beryl will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 88.7W this afternoon, 21.7N 91.0W Sat morning, 22.9N 93.1W Sat afternoon, 23.8N 94.8W Sun morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.7N 96.1W Sun afternoon, and 26.0N 97.1W Mon morning. Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland over 28.0N 98.4W early Tue. There remains some uncertainty in the track forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on Hurricane Beryl, located near the NE Yucatan peninsula. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave in the central Caribbean. Aside from Hurricane Beryl in the NW Caribbean and the tropical wave in the central Caribbean, showers and thunderstorms are present in the SW Caribbean near the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Earlier scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the eastern Caribbean. Similar winds are also found north of 14N and between 79W and 83W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl is near 20.1N 86.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Beryl will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 88.7W this afternoon, 21.7N 91.0W Sat morning, 22.9N 93.1W Sat afternoon, 23.8N 94.8W Sun morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.7N 96.1W Sun afternoon, and 26.0N 97.1W Mon morning. Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland over 28.0N 98.4W early Tue. Meanwhile, a surge of fresh to strong winds, rough seas, and numerous squalls is expected to move across the eastern and central Caribbean today associated with a strong tropical wave. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas will then prevail across much of the central and NW Caribbean this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. A weakening stationary front extends from 31N60W to 26N66W to 28N78W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident on satellite imagery north of 24N and between 56W and 73W. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are occurring with the strongest convection. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of subtropical high pressure centered north of the area and a large outbreak of the Saharan Air Layer. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa support fresh to strong northerly winds north of 17N and east of 25W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Beryl is moving through the NW Caribbean and is forecast to remain away from the Atlantic basin. A weakening stationary front stretches from 31N60W to 28N78W. The front will continue to dissipate through through tonight. High pressure will prevail otherwise with mainly gentle to moderate winds, locally fresh to strong near Hispaniola at times. $$ AKR