000 AXNT20 KNHC 051750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jul 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Beryl is centered near 20.7N 88.3W at 05/1500 UTC or 90 nm ESE of Progreso Mexico, moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are 18 ft, highest seas being over the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is in the SE Gulf S of 25N between 84W and 91W. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and then move northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the end of the weekend. Continued rapid weakening is expected as Beryl moves farther inland and crosses the Yucatan Peninsula today, but slow re-intensification is expected once Beryl moves back over the Gulf of Mexico. Then, Beryl is forecast to move northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the end of the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 07N to 21N with axis near 42W, moving westward at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 11N and between 35W and 45W. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean extending S of 20N with axis near 76W, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 19N between 68W and 79W. Fresh E to SE winds and seas to 7 ft are ahead and behind this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 08N25W. The ITCZ extends from 08N25W to 07N42W to 06N55W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 13W and 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on Hurricane Beryl, located over the Yucatan peninsula. Hurricane Beryl is near 20.7N 88.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Except for the Yucatan Channel the SE Gulf of Mexico W of 85W, and the eastern Bay of Campeche, light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate are across the remainder basin being supported by a weak ridge covering the nothern half of the region. The ridge is anchored by 1015 mb centers of high pressure, one near 27N94W and the othe near 20N87W. For the forecast, Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.4N 90.1W this evening, move to 22.5N 92.2W Sat morning, 23.6N 94.1W Sat evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.6N 95.6W Sun morning, 25.6N 96.6W Sun evening, and 26.8N 97.5W Mon morning. Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland near 29.0N 98.0W early Tue. There remains some uncertainty in the track forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on Hurricane Beryl, located near the NE Yucatan peninsula. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave in the central Caribbean. Hurricane Beryl is inland the Yucatan Peninsula near 20.7N 88.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Aside from Beryl, a tropical wave is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate to rough seas E of its axis, over the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh SE winds are also ahead of the wave, across Jamaica adjacent waters, including portions of the Windward Passage. Aside from the winds and seas, this wave is generating scattered heavy showers and tstms over the central and portions of the SW Caribbean. Otherwise, fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas associated with Beryl continue to affect the far NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.4N 90.1W this evening, move to 22.5N 92.2W Sat morning, 23.6N 94.1W Sat evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.6N 95.6W Sun morning, 25.6N 96.6W Sun evening, and 26.8N 97.5W Mon morning. Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland near 29.0N 98.0W early Tue. Meanwhile, a surge of fresh to strong winds, rough seas, and numerous squalls is expected to move across the central Caribbean today associated with a strong tropical wave. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas will then prevail across much of the central and NW Caribbean this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The remnants of a stationary front, analyzed as a surface trough, extends from 31N59W to 26N68W to 28N77W. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are ongoing across most the SW N Atlantic waters E of the Bahamas and N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds are between 56W and 68W associated with this broad area of convection being supported by a middle to upper level low. The remainder of the subtropical a portions of the tropical Atlantic are under the influence of the Azores High associated ridge,which is supporting gentle to moderate E winds across the central basin. Over the E subtropical Atlantic, fresh NE winds and rough seas are ongoing due to a tighter pressure gradient. Otherwise, a large outbreak of the Saharan Air Layer continue to race behind the tropical wave over the central Atlantic and engulfs it west of its axis as well. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will dissipate through tonight. High pressure will prevail otherwise with mainly gentle to moderate winds, locally fresh to strong near Hispaniola at times. $$ Ramos