000 AXNT20 KNHC 060551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jul 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0535 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 21.9N 90.8W at 06/0600 UTC or 505 mi SE of Corpus Christi, Texas, moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently 20 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring well to the north of the center. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest and this motion is expected to continue through this morning. A turn to the northwest is expected thereafter, with the center of Beryl expected to approach the Texas coast by late Sunday. Little change in strength is expected through this morning. Afterwards, strengthening is anticipated later this weekend, and Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the coast. Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by this morning. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are evident on satellite imagery from 07N to 10N and east of 23W. The wave is embedded within a dry Saharan airmass that is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms north of 10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This broad wave is also embedded within a dry Saharan airmass that is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper level low over eastern Cuba resulting in numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from Hispaniola to northern Colombia and between 69W and 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 10N29W. The ITCZ extends from 10N29W to 07N46W and then from 07N48W to 07N58W. Isolated to scattered showers are found within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on Tropical Storm Beryl, located in the south-central Gulf. Aside from Beryl, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the nearshore waters of the northern and NE Gulf. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a weak high pressure system positioned in the NE Gulf. Except for the south- central Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the Gulf waters. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl is near 21.9N 90.8W at 2 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Beryl will move to 22.7N 91.8W Sat morning, 23.9N 93.6W Sat evening, 25.0N 95.0W Sun morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 26.2N 96.0W Sun evening, 27.6N 96.6W Mon morning, and move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 29.2N 96.7W Mon evening. Beryl will weaken to a remnant low over 31.8N 95.3W late Tue. Conditions will continue to deteriorate across the western Gulf of Mexico as Beryl moves toward the Texas coast. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave in the central Caribbean. An expansive subtropical ridge centered west of the Azores continues to extend southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in northern South America and the tropical wave along 78W support moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds in the eastern and north-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl is near 21.9N 90.8W at 2 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Beryl will continue to move farther from the NW Caribbean tonight and into Sat. Conditions will continue to improve across the NW basin. Meanwhile, a surge of fresh to strong winds, rough seas, and numerous squalls will move across the central Caribbean tonight and into Sat associated with a strong tropical wave. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas will then prevail across much of the central and NW Caribbean this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on the tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean. A broad upper level low located SW of Bermuda is interacting with a surface trough that extends from 31N62W to 27N70W and to 28N79W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 25N and between 58W and 70W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to near gale-force southerly winds with this convection. Gusts to gale force are likely occurring with the strongest convection. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft, but higher seas are likely found in the areas with the strongest convection. Farther south, a weak surface trough stretches across the SE Bahamas, producing a few showers north of Hispaniola. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive subtropical ridge located west of the Azores. The pressure gradient betwen the ridge and lower pressures in western Africa and the deep tropics support fresh to strong NE winds north of 15N and east of 33W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, a trough continues to stretch from 31N62W to 28N79W with strong thunderstorms noted on the eastern side of the trough, N of 25N and E of 70W. This trough will continue to linger through the weekend before dissipating. High pressure will prevail across the area with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Locally fresh to strong winds can be expected near Hispaniola at times. $$ Delgado