000 AXNT20 KNHC 061750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jul 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 23.6N 92.7W at 06/1800 UTC or 360 nm SE of Corpus Christi Texas, moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently 21 ft. A turn to the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to approach the Texas coast by late Sunday into Monday morning. Little change in strength is expected today. However, strengthening is expected to begin tonight or on Sunday, and Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the Texas coast. Large swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. today. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 17N to eastern Cuba, between 74W and 80W. Scattered moderate convection is also in the SW Caribbean from 10N to 14N west of 81W, including coastal areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. Additional showers and thunderstorms are in the eastern Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 09N30W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 07N49W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 14W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section on the latest details on Tropical Storm Beryl, located in the Gulf of Mexico. Weak 1015 mb high pressure is analyzed in the NE Gulf waters. Outside of Beryl, 3-5 ft seas and gentle winds prevail in the eastern waters and along the central Gulf coast. Winds and seas increase with proximity to Beryl in the south-central Caribbean. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl will move to 23.7N 93.5W this evening, 24.9N 95.0W Sun morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 26.2N 96.0W Sun evening, 27.7N 96.7W Mon morning, then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 29.3N 96.8W Mon evening. Conditions will deteriorate across the western Gulf of Mexico as Beryl moves toward the Texas coast this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave in the central Caribbean. A classic summertime pattern remains in force across the Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades prevail in the central Caribbean, including within the Windward Passage and between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Seas in these winds are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, trades are gentle to moderate with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong tradewinds and rough seas are expected across much of the central and NW Caribbean this weekend and into early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on the tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean. 1014 mb low pressure is centered in the northern Bahamas. A surface trough extends southwest from the low over the Gulf Stream, and also northeast of the low along 27N to 65W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N to 29N between 63W and 69W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive subtropical ridge across the midlatitude and subtropical Atlantic. Satellite scatterometer data from this morning indicates gentle to moderate trades across the basin, with fresh NE winds noted east of 30W. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters, increasing to 7-11 ft in the aforementioned area of fresh winds. For the forecast west of 55W, the trough over the northern Bahamas will linger through the weekend before dissipating. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail across the area with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola later in the weekend. $$ Mahoney