000 AXNT20 KNHC 071220 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jul 7 2024 UPDATED SPECIAL FEATURES TO INCLUDE INFORMATION FROM THE 1200 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL STORM BERYL Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 25.5N 94.9W at 07/1200 UTC or 200 nm SSE of Matagorda Texas, moving NW at 10 kt. This motion should continue through today. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 24N to 29N between 90W and 97W. Peak seas are 23 ft. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight, with a turn toward the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to make landfall on the Texas coast Monday morning. Strengthening is expected, and Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane again later today or tonight before it reaches the Texas coast. Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are evident on satellite imagery from 08N to 10N and near the trough axis. The wave is embedded within a dry Saharan airmass that is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms north of 10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted from 12N to 19N between 52W and 58W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 23N, moving westward at 10 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper level low located south of the Cayman Islands, resulting in scattered moderate to isolated strong convection south of 22N and between 76W and 88W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to 09N30W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 06N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 13W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on Tropical Storm Beryl, located in the western Gulf of Mexico. A weak 1016 mb high pressure system continues in the NE Gulf waters. Outside of Beryl, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the eastern Gulf waters and Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl is near 25.3N 94.6W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Beryl will move to 26.3N 95.4W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 28.1N 96.1W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 30.2N 96.1W Mon afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 32.5N 95.1W Tue morning, inland to 34.7N 93.3W Tue afternoon, and inland to 36.7N 91.6W Wed morning. Beryl will move inland near 40.5N 87.0W early Thu. Conditions will continue to deteriorate across the western Gulf of Mexico as Beryl moves toward the Texas coast through Mon. High pressure will build in the wake of Beryl, with conditions improving Monday night into Tuesday as Beryl moves inland. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea. Outside of the influence of the tropical wave, fairly tranquil conditions are evident on satellite imagery in the central and eastern Caribbean. A 1030 mb high pressure system centered over the north Atlantic extends southwestward into the basin. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in northern South America sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are noted off northern Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong tradewinds and rough seas are expected across much of the central and NW Caribbean through midweek. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Tue night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue across the NW Caribbean today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on the tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean. A broad upper level low positioned near 31N71W is interacting with a surface trough extending from the NW Bahamas to near Bermuda. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring north of 23N and between 67W and 81W. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are noted from 55W to 72W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere west of 72W, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive subtropical ridge located SW of the Azores. The pressure gradient betwen the ridge and lower pressures in western Africa and the deep tropics support fresh to strong NE winds north of 15N and east of 37W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, a trough extending from 31N68W to the northern Bahamas will linger through Mon before dissipating. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail across the area with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola today and Mon. $$ AReinhart/Mahoney