000 AXNT20 KNHC 071803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jul 7 2024 UPDATED SPECIAL FEATURES WITH THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL STORM BERYL Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1620 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 26.3N 95.3W at 07/1800 UTC or 140 nm SSE of Matagorda Texas, moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.Scattered moderate convection is noted from 24N to 28N west of 93W. Peak seas are 24 ft. The current general motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a turn toward the north forecast on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to make landfall on the middle Texas coast early Monday. Beryl is forecast to turn northeastward and move farther inland over eastern Texas and Arkansas late Monday and Tuesday. Steady strengthening is expected, and Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane again later today. Continued strengthening is expected overnight before Beryl reaches the Texas coast. Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are near Barbados and the Windward Islands. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W, south of 22N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 17N west of 80W, including coastal regions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and over the western Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Dakar, Senegal, near 15N17W to 06N43W where the ITCZ then continues to 05N52W near Cayenne, French Guiana. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the either side of the Monsoon Trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for the latest details on Tropical Storm Beryl. 1016 mb high pressure system persists in the NE Gulf waters. Outside of Beryl, light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas are found in the eastern Gulf waters and Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl will strengthen to a hurricane near 27.1N 95.7W this evening, then move inland to 29.2N 96.2W Mon morning. Conditions will continue to deteriorate across the western Gulf of Mexico as Beryl moves toward the Texas coast through Mon. High pressure will build in the wake of Beryl, with conditions improving Monday night into Tuesday as Beryl moves inland. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the tropical wave and its convection in the western Caribbean Sea. The subtropical high pressure centered north of the area has expended south and west, providing for a tighter pressure gradient, faster winds, and building seas across the central Caribbean. Satellite scatterometer this morning indicates fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean, with 7-10 ft seas. Mainly moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas are analyzed elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong tradewinds and rough seas are expected across much of the central and NW Caribbean through midweek. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Tue night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue across the NW Caribbean today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for the latest details on the tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean. The surface trough from Cape Canaveral, FL across the northern Bahamas to 31N69W has begun to gradually lift north today. Scattered moderate convection currently is from 25N to 31N between 67W and 75W. Satellite scatterometer returned moderate to fresh S winds near the surface trough. Moderate to locally fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail basin-wide. Light winds and seas are analyzed within the Gulf Stream. For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic surface trough will linger through Mon before dissipating. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail across the area with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola today and Mon. $$ Mahoney