000 AXNT20 KNHC 081805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jul 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 30.5N 95.5W at 08/1800 UTC or 50 nm N of Houston Texas, moving NNE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across Texas coastal and offshore waters. Peak seas are 19 ft. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move over eastern Texas today, then move through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. Steady weakening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 04N to 20N with axis near 35W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 10N between 33W and 40W. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean extending to the S of 20N with axis near 65W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is across the E Caribbean E of 70W. A tropical wave is moving across northern Central America and into the E Pacific waters. Its axis is near 89W and is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered heavy showers are across the Gulf of Honduras, and adjacent waters of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W and continues along 16N23W to 12N30W to 08N41W where the ITCZ then continues to 07N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave in the central Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 14N between 10W and 23W, and from 05N to 10N W of 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for the latest details on now Tropical Storm Beryl. Tropical Storm Beryl is inland eastern Texas near 30.5N 95.5W at 2 PM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with 60 kt gusts, and the minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Over the NW Gulf, fresh to near gale force winds and very rough seas to 19 ft associated with Beryl prevail. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds are elsewhere across the basin along with moderate seas. For the forecast, Beryl will move further inland to 31.5N 95.0W this evening. High pressure will build in the wake of Beryl and prevail through the week, with conditions improving tonight into Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the tropical waves in the area. The Bermuda-Azores High centered northeast of the area continues to support a tight pressure gradient that is leading to a large area of fresh to strong trades across the central and portions of the Caribbean. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds prevail, except for moderate to fresh winds in the NW basin. Seas are 7-10 ft in the central Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the strong ridge north of the Caribbean and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across much of the central and SW Caribbean through late this week. Winds may pulse to near gale at night off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean through midweek, pulsing to strong speeds across the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for the latest details on the tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are across the central and western subtropical Atlantic waters along with moderate seas under the influence of the Bermuda-Azores High associated ridge. Northeast winds of the same magnitude are also ongoing across the E subtropical Atlantic waters along with moderate seas, except for fresh to locally strong winds E of the Canary Islands. Otherwise, a surface trough between Bermuda and the Bahamas continues to support a broad area of scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 25N between 68W and 79W. For the forecast west of 55W, the interaction between an upper level low located between the SE US and Bermuda, and a surface trough will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between the Bahamas and Bermuda through Tue. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail across the area with mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds. Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight and then late this week. $$ Ramos