763 AXNT20 KNHC 090503 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jul 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic extending from 06N-20N with axis near 37W, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N-08N between 32W-41W. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean extending to the south of 19N with axis near 65W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A tropical wave is moving across N Central America and into the E Pacific waters. Its axis is near 91W and is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered heavy showers are occurring over SE Mexico including the Yucatan and Guatemala. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal near 16N17W and continues to 09N42W. The ITCZ continues from there to 06N58W along the coast of Guyana. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave in the central Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is from 10N-15N east of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Beryl continues to push N across eastern Texas. At 0300 UTC, its center is near 32.8N 94.3W, and is moving north-northeast at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds an seas to 6 ft prevail across the central portion of the basin between 88W-94W, while gentle to moderate S to SE winds are elsewhere across the basin along with 3-4 ft seas. For the forecast, the remnants of Beryl will continue moving N while weakening and marine conditions over the NW Gulf will continue to improve into Tuesday. High pressure building in the wake of Beryl will prevail through the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the tropical wave in the area. The Bermuda-Azores High centered northeast of the area continues to support a tight pressure gradient that is leading to a large area of fresh to strong trades across the central and NW Caribbean this evening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 8-10 ft in the central Caribbean and 3-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong ridge north of the Caribbean and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across much of the central Caribbean into the upcoming weekend. Winds may pulse to near gale at night off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean through midweek, pulsing to strong speeds across the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for the latest details on the tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the central and W subtropical Atlantic waters along with 3-5 ft seas are under the influence of the Bermuda-Azores High associated ridge. Northeast winds of the same magnitude are also ongoing across the E subtropical Atlantic waters along with moderate seas, except for fresh to strong NE winds east of the Canary Islands. Otherwise, a surface trough - being forced by a strong upper-level low - analyzed along 29N between 71W-77W, continues to support a broad area of scattered showers and thunderstorms from 26N-31N and west of 72W. For the forecast west of 55W, the west Atlantic surface trough will continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between the Bahamas and Bermuda tonight. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail across the area with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight and then late this week. $$ ERA