000 AXNT20 KNHC 091114 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jul 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 20W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 09N and between 31W and 40W. The northern portion of the wave is embedded within a dry Saharan airmass that is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are found near the northern portion of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 12N37W. The ITCZ extends from 12N37W to 08N59W. A few showers are noted near the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... An expansive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Depression Beryl is now well inland over Arkansas and its influence over the Gulf waters has subsided. An upper level low near the NW Bahamas supports a few showers over the eastern Gulf waters and a tropical wave moving along the Bay of Campeche is also enhancing the storm activity in the area. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are present between 86W and 94W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will build over the Gulf of Mexico during the next few of days, resulting in generally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. An expansive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the Caribean Sea. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong easterly trade widns in the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and Gulf of Honduras. Latest scatterometer satellite data showed locally near gale-force winds off northern Colombia. Seas are 8-11 ft in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 4-8 ft are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a persistent subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean will force fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across much of the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds may pulse to near gale at night off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean through midweek, pulsing to strong speeds across the Gulf of Honduras tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on the tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean. Divergence aloft associated with an upper level low near the NW Bahamas supports scattered showers to isolated strong convection west of 71W and north of 25W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of the Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic. A large area of dry Saharan dust is moving across the central and eastern Atlantic, maintaining generally dry conditions. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in western Africa sustain moderate to locally fresh northerly winds north of 15N and east of 23W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, an upper level low near the NW Bahamas will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 70W through midweek. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail across the area with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola late this week. $$ Delgado