000 AXNT20 KNHC 100508 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jul 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 38W, S of 26N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W, S of 24W, moving westward around 15-20 kt. No significant deep convection is noted in association with this wave. The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W, south of 21N, moving westward around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the southern portion of the wave, mainly S of 11N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 10N47W. The ITCZ extends from 10N53W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-11N between 23W-30W and 38W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1016 mb high centered near 27N86W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail across much of the Gulf waters. Fresh winds are pulsing over the eastern Bay of Campeche, as the diurnal trough moves from the Yucatan Peninsula to the west. For the forecast, weak pressure pattern will persist across the basin through the work week and into the weekend, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. The pressure gradient between ridging north of the area along with lower pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range in the central and SW Caribbean, 4-7 ft in the W Caribbean, and 3-6 ft in the E Caribbean, mainly E of 70W. For the forecast, the broad high pressure system will prevail north of the area over the next several days, forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across much of the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds may pulse to near gale at night off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras during the remainder of the week and into the weekend, occasionally pulsing to strong force at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. The interaction between a surface trough off NE Florida and divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 70W. High pressure prevails across the waters N of 20N, with gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft. S of 20N, gentle to locally moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft prevail. Fresh to strong winds are noted off the coast of Africa N of the monsoon trough, where seas are in the 5-7 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough off NE Florida will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 70W during the next few days. Otherwise, a broad subtropical ridge will prevail across the area with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola late this week while winds elsewhere freshen through Sat night. Seas may build to around 9 ft in the SE waters Fri through Sat with the freshening winds. $$ ERA