000 AXNT20 KNHC 100955 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jul 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 26W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 12N and between 38W and 49W. A dry Saharan airmass envelops the wave axis north of 12N, suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 24W, moving westward at 15 kt. This wave is also embedded in a dry Saharan airmass and no deep convection is noted the the trough axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W, south of 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are found between 77W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N17W and continues southwestward to 12N30W and to 12N47W. The ITCZ extends from 12N47W to 11N55W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 11N and east of 31W.. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly south of 23N and west of 91W. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail. A 1017 mb high pressure system over the eastern Gulf is sustaining gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-4 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue during the next several days, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea, forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 4-7 ft are evident in the north-central and eastern Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a broad high pressure system will prevail north of the area over the next several days, forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across much of the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds may pulse to near gale at night off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras during the remainder of the week and into the weekend, occasionally pulsing to strong force at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface trough extends from 28N74W to South Carolina, supporting scattered showers north of 25N and west of 72W. Farther east, water vapor imagery depict a large upper level low near 28N65W and this system is producing isolated showers between Bermuda and the eastern Greater Antilles, with the strongest convection occurring off the northern coast of these islands. The rest of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. A large area of dry Saharan dust is moving across the central and eastern Atlantic, maintaining generally dry conditions. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics forces moderate to locally fresh easterly winds between 35W and 70W and north of 15N. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to locally strong northerly winds are found north of 15N and east of 30W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the interaction between a surface trough off NE Florida and divergence aloft will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 70W during the next few days. Otherwise, a broad subtropical ridge will prevail across the area. Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola late this week. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong winds are forecast Thu into Sun night in the SE waters, sustaining seas to around 9 ft. $$ Delgado