000 AXNT20 KNHC 101811 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jul 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A newly analyzed eastern Atlantic tropical wave is southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands near 28N from 17N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Hindered by Saharan Dust in the vicinity, no significant convection is seen near this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 23N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Influenced by dry Saharan Dust, no significant convection is seen near this wave. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W from 25N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Being enveloped by much drier air at both low and mid levels, there is no significant convection. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from near central Cuba southward to east of the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found offshore from the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border, and also near the Cayman Islands and in the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of southern Mauritania near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward through 13N30W to 11N44W. An ITCZ continues westward from 11N44W to 11N56W. Scattered moderate convection is evident south of the trough from 06N to 09N and between the Sierra Leone coast and 16W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough and ITCZ from 05N to 11N between 21W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the western Bay of Campeche. Convergent southerly winds are producing similar conditions for the northwestern and north-central Gulf and near the Windward Passage and Yucatan Channel. A surface ridge runs westward from a 1018 mb high over southern Florida to northwestern Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the entire Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will dominate the Gulf for the next several days, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off northwestern Yucatan. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad subtropical ridge related to a Azores-Bermuda High north of 25N is supporting a trade- wind pattern across the entire basin. Aided by afternoon heating, convergent trades are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong ENE to E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas in NE swell are found at the waters near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh easterly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the central and portions of the southwestern basin through Sun under the influence of the Azores-Bermuda High. The strongest winds will be in the south-central basin and portions of the southwestern basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela and Colombia offshore waters. Strong winds in these regions may briefly reach near gale-force Fri night and seas will be up 10 ft. Gentle to moderate trades in the eastern basin will reach moderate to fresh Thu night into Sat as two tropical waves moves across the area. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are forecast for the northwestern basin, increasing to fresh at night in the Gulf of Honduras, the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage today through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends southeastward from the Carolinas across 31N77W to 29N75W, supporting scattered showers north of 26N and west of 74W, including the northwest Bahamas. Farther east, a pronounced upper-level low near 27N66W is generating widely scattered moderate convection from 22N to 28N between 61W and 74W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A broad subtropical ridge associated with a Azores-Bermuda High is promoting gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 20N between 30W and 75W. Moderate to fresh SSW to W winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present across the northwest Bahamas and east of Florida. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft dominate the central and southeast Bahamas, and the Great Bahama Bank. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, fresh to strong N to NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are seen north of 15N between the Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 09N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough has a low chance of tropical development as environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for the next couple of days before it moves inland over the southeastern U.S. by this weekend. Regardless of development, moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas will affect the offshore waters between 64W and 80W through Fri night. Shower activity associated with this system will also prevail in this region through Thu night. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds elsewhere will reach moderate to fresh tonight into Sat night due to a strengthening Azores-Bermuda High and the passage of two tropical waves over the eastern and central Caribbean. Locally strong winds and rough seas are likely for Puerto Rico and Hispaniola adjacent waters Thu night into Sat. $$ Chan