000 AXNT20 KNHC 110951 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jul 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been added in the eastern Atlantic, along 20W, south of 18N, based on satellite imagery, Hovmoller diagram and wave diagnostic data. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 12N and east of 22W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N and between 32W and 40W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W, south of 23N, moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated showers are found south of 16N and between 42W and 49W. A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles, along 61W, south of 25N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is present near the trough axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W, south of 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 17N and west of 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the eastern Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N17W and continues southwestward to 08N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N33W to 11N44W and from 12N48W to 13N59W. Scattered moderate convection is evident south of 11N and between 49W and 57W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A few showers are occurring in the nearshore waters of Veracruz and Tamaulipas, while generally dry conditions are found elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. A weak pressure gradient across the basin result in moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan through Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An expansive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea, forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central and SW Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 4-7 ft are present in the eastern and north- central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and also the Gulf of Honduras and lee of Cuba. In the rest of the basin, light to gentle winds and sight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central and SW Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Winds may pulse to near gale at night off NW Colombia. Seas will peak near 10 ft during the strongest winds. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean, increasing to fresh speeds at night in the Gulf of Honduras, the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage tonight through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from South Carolina to near the NW Bahamas, supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 70W and north of 24W. Farther east, an expansive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic forces moderate to locally fresh easterly winds west of 40W. Seas in these waters are 4-8 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail east of 40W, except fresh to strong from offshore Africa from near the Canary Islands to the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 6-9 ft across the area of fresh to strong winds, and moderate seas across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough off NE Florida will sustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the next few days, west of 70W. Winds will increase to strong speeds east of the trough tonight into Fri. Seas will build to 10 ft early Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue in the SE waters during the next several days. Seas will build to 9 ft early Fri. Locally strong winds and rough seas are likely for Puerto Rico and Hispaniola adjacent waters Fri night into Sat night. $$ Delgado