000 AXNT20 KNHC 111812 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Jul 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning for their Canarias marine zone, expect frequent gusts to gale-force mainly between the Canary Islands from 11/12Z to 12/12Z. Please visit website - https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is over the eastern Cabo Verde Islands near 23W from 20N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 11N between 18W and 23W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W from 15N southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Under the influence of Saharan Dust, no significant convection is observed. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 22N southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Widely scattered showers are found from 10N to 15N between 47W and 51W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from near the Virgin Islands southward into northern Venezuela, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near Trinidad and Tobago, and over northeastern Venezuela. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W from the Yucatan Channel southward Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over Belize. Interaction with the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering numerous heavy showers and scattered strong thunderstorms at the southwestern Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward across 10N24W to 06N35W. An ITCZ continues westward from 06N35W across 05N45W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate convection is evident south of 11N and between 49W and 57W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of the trough from 06N to 10N between the Sierra Leone coast. Similar conditions are also found near the trough and ITCZ, from 03N to 09N between 34W and 41W, and from 06N to 11N between 50W and 58W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring south of a frontal boundary across the Gulf States, near the Texas and Louisiana coast, including waters near New Orleans. Convergent southeasterly winds are producing similar conditions near the Mexican coast. A surface trough runs eastward from the northeastern Gulf to beyond northern Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the Florida west coast. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high at the north-central Gulf is promoting light to gentle winds at the northeastern Gulf, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds for the rest of the Gulf. Seas for the entire Gulf range from 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula through Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An expansive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends southwestward into the Great Bahama Bank, sustaining a trade-wind regime across much of the Caribbean Basin. Convergent trades are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds with seas at 7 to 9 ft are seen at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are evident at the northwestern basin. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft in ENE swell are found near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned subtropical ridge will support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through early next week. Winds may pulse to near-gale force at night off northwestern Colombia. Seas will peak near 10 ft during the strongest winds. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are forecast for the northwestern Caribbean, increasing to fresh at night in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba and Windward Passage tonight through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends westward from a 1012 mb low near 30N76W to beyond northern Florida. Interaction with an Upper-level low near 31N71W is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 23N and west of 64W, including the northwest and central Bahamas. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. The subtropical ridge is supporting moderate to locally fresh E to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft north of 20N between 20W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Near the Cabo Verde Islands from 10N to 20N and east of 30W, gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate northerly swell exist. For the Tropical Atlantic from 08N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough off northeastern Florida will sustain scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the waters mainly north of the Bahamas during the next few days. The trough is expected to lift northwestward and move inland the southeastern U.S. by this weekend. SE winds will increase to fresh to strong east of the trough from this afternoon through early Fri evening. Seas will build to near 10 ft early Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue across the southeastern waters during the next several days. Seas will build to 9 ft early Fri. Locally strong winds and rough seas are likely for Puerto Rico and Hispaniola adjacent waters Fri night into Sat night. $$ Chan