000 AXNT20 KNHC 120543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jul 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning for their Canarias marine zone, expect frequent gusts to gale-force mainly with seas to 10 ft between the Canary Islands through 13/00Z. These winds are being forced by the interaction between the Bermuda-Azores High and a 1005 mb low over Mauritania. Please visit website - https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from 23N southward, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N-10N between 25W-30W. The axis of another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 16N southward, moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is observed. The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 23N southward, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 10N-18N between 53W-57W. The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W from 20N southward, moving westward around 20 kt. No significant convection is observed over the discussion waters. The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 88W from 21N southward into the East Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over Belize and Guatemala. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic across the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to 10N26W. The ITCZ continues from 10N26W to 09N54W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 40W-53W. The eastern North Pacific monsoon trough enters the Caribbean along the along the Panama coast near 09N82W and extends to a 1008 mb low on the coast of Colombia near 10N76w. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 11N west of 79W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure is centered just north of the Gulf this evening. Quiescent conditions prevail with light to moderate winds dominating the Gulf waters and seas of 1-3 ft. No significant deep convection is occurring. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula through Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong trades and seas of 6-8 ft are found over the south central Caribbean. Elsewhere, the trades are gentle to moderate with seas of 2-5 ft. Deep convection in the SW and NW Caribbean is occurring in association with the tropical waves, as discussed above. For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Winds may pulse to near gale force at night off NW Colombia Fri night. Seas will peak near 10 ft Fri night and Sat night. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are forecast for the northwestern Caribbean, pulsing to fresh speeds at night in the Gulf of Honduras, the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage tonight through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive Bermuda-Azores High extends across the Atlantic north of the area. This is contributing toward moderate to fresh trades from 10N-31N across the Atlantic with seas 4-7 ft. From 20N-25N between 55W-60W, the E trades are strong with seas 8 ft. As noted above, NE winds near the Canary Islands and NW Africa are reaching warning criterion. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 27N west of 73W due to the interaction of an upper-level low and a surface trough off of the NE Florida/Georgia coast. For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure trough from 30N77W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida, will sustain scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the waters mainly north of the Bahamas during the next few days. The trough is expected to lift northwestward and move inland the southeastern U.S. by this weekend. Southeast winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds east of the trough through Fri evening. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue across the southeastern waters through the weekend. Seas will build to 9 ft early Fri. Locally strong winds and rough seas are likely for Hispaniola adjacent waters Fri night into Sat night. $$ Landsea/Konarik