000 AXNT20 KNHC 121020 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jul 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning for their Canarias marine zone, expect frequent gusts to gale-force mainly with seas to 10 ft between the Canary Islands through 13/00Z. These winds are being forced by the interaction between the Bermuda-Azores High and a 1005 mb low over Mauritania. Please visit website - https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 21N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N-12N between 25W-31W. The axis of another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 16N southward, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 06N to 09N between 40W and 43W. The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-18N between 53W-59W. The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W from Hispaniola to Colombia, moving westward around 20 kt. No significant convection is observed in association with this wave.. A western Caribbean tropical wave has now moved inland into central America and into portions of the Eastern Pacific Ocean, taking associated convection with it. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic across the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to 10N26W. The ITCZ continues from 10N26W to 09N55W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 43W-53W. The eastern North Pacific monsoon trough enters the Caribbean along the Panama coast near 09N82W and extends to a 1008 mb low on the coast of Colombia near 10N76w. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 11N west of 78W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure has drifted S to the northern Gulf coast just offshore Louisiana overnight. This is leading to quiescent conditions with light to moderate winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft. No significant convection is occurring. For the forecast, the high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh trades and seas of 6-8 ft are found over the south central Caribbean. Elsewhere, the trades are mainly moderate with seas of 32-5 ft. Deep convection in the SW Caribbean is occurring in association with eastern Pacific monsoon trough, described above. For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Winds may pulse to near gale force at night off NW Colombia tonight. Seas will peak near 10 ft tonight and Sat night. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are forecast for the northwest Caribbean, pulsing to fresh speeds at night in the Gulf of Honduras, the lee of Cuba, and the Windward Passage through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning in the far E Atlantic near the Canary Islands. An expansive Bermuda-Azores High extends across the Atlantic north of the area. This is contributing toward moderate to fresh trades across nearly the entire Atlantic discussion area, with seas 4-7 ft. A weak trough in the far NW area is leading to scattered moderate convection, with fresh S winds to the E of the trough, N of 29N and W of 74W. A zone of 7 to 9 ft seas an fresh to locally strong trades extends from 20N to 25N between 55W and 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned low pressure trough will sustain scattered to numerous thunderstorms over the waters mainly north of the Bahamas during the next few days. The trough is expected to lift northwestward and move inland the southeastern U.S. by this weekend. Southeast winds will be to fresh to strong speeds east of the trough through this evening. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue across the southeast waters into the weekend, where seas will build to 9 ft. Locally strong winds and rough seas are likely for Hispaniola adjacent waters tonight into Sat night. $$ Konarik