000 AXNT20 KNHC 121635 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jul 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1620 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning for the CANARAIS marine zone near the Canary Islands through 13/03Z. Expect NE winds to Force 8 with seas to 10 ft. Please visit website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W from 20N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 60W from 21N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 14N between 58W and 64W, including across Barbados, northeastern Venezuela, and most of the Windward Islands. The 1200 UTC Upper Air Soundings from Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago assisted in the analysis of the wave position this morning. The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from 21N southward, moving westward around 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic across the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 08N34W. The ITCZ continues from 08N34W to 08N57W. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... 1019 mb high pressure centered near 27N90W provides for fair conditions across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are light to gentle and seas are 1-3 ft. Scattered showers are noted in the south- eastern Gulf. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on a tropical wave approaching the eastern Caribbean with significant convection. Satellite scatterometer data from this morning depicts fresh to locally strong trades, with seas of 6-8 ft, in the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, trades are gentle to moderate, with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Winds may pulse to near gale force at night off NW Colombia tonight. Seas will peak near 10 ft tonight and Sat night. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are forecast for the northwest Caribbean, pulsing to fresh speeds at night in the Gulf of Honduras, the lee of Cuba, and the Windward Passage through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Pleas see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a Gale Warning in the far E Atlantic near the Canary Islands. Scattered showers and tstorms are evident on satellite imagery across the Bahamas, South Florida, and NE Florida. This disturbed weather is associated with a surface trough that extends from 31N80W to Cape Canaveral, FL. Fresh to strong S winds are east of the trough, north of 28N between 76W and 79W. Elsewhere, the Bermuda High dominates remaining forecast waters. The strength of the high pressure is supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 24N east of 64W, with mainly moderate trades elsewhere. An area of 8-9 ft seas is from 20N to 25N between 57W and 63W. Seas are 4-7 ft elsewhere in open waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough off the coast of NE Florida will continue to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms over the waters mainly north of the Bahamas today as it lifts northward. The low pressure centered north fo the area along the trough is expected to move inland over the Carolinas this afternoon. Fresh to strong south winds N of 30N between 75W and 78W will diminish late tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue across the southeast waters into the weekend, where seas will build to 9 ft. Locally strong winds and rough seas are likely for Hispaniola adjacent waters from this afternoon through Sat night $$ Mahoney