574 AXNT20 KNHC 122100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jul 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning for the CANARAIS marine zone near the Canary Islands through 13/03Z. Expect NE winds to Force 8 with seas to 10 ft. Please visit website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 20N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Limited convection is where the wave intersects the monsoon trough, and is described below. The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 61W/62W from 21N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 59W and 64W. The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W from 21N southward, moving westward around 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic across the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 07N36W. The ITCZ continues from 07N38W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the monsoon trough between 25W and 40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 45W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is across the SW Gulf. High pressure prevails across the remainder of the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 28N89W. Gentle to moderate winds are in the vicinity of the trough, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean, with moderate to locally fresh winds over the north central Caribbean and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to locally moderate winds are found over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 3-4 ft in the western Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Winds may pulse to near gale force at night off NW Colombia tonight. Seas will peak near 10 ft tonight and Sat night. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are forecast for the northwest Caribbean, pulsing to fresh speeds at night in the Gulf of Honduras and in the Windward Passage through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Pleas see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a Gale Warning in the far E Atlantic near the Canary Islands. A surface trough extends from 31N79W to central Florida, supported by an upper level trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection covers the waters E of Florida to near 73W associated with these features. Fresh to strong winds are found within 60 nm east of the trough. High pressure prevails elsewhere over the discussion waters N of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft prevails over these waters. S of 20N, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong south winds N of 30N between 75W and 78W will diminish late tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue across the southeastern waters through the weekend, where seas will build to 9 ft. Fresh to strong E winds and moderate seas will develop between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola through Sat night. $$ AL