000 AXNT20 KNHC 130610 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jul 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning for the CANARAIS marine zone near the Canary Islands through 13/03Z. Expect NE winds to Force 8 with seas to 10 ft. Please visit website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 21N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 11N between 31W and 38W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 63W from 22N southward across the northern Leeward Islands to northeastern Venezuela. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring from 14N to 23N between the Leeward Islands and 65W, including the Virgin Islands. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from near Jamaica southward across eastern Panama to the East Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Western Sahara and Mauritania, then curves southwestward across 13N23W to 09N37W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N37W across 08N45W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 07N to 11N between the Guinea/Sierra Leone coast and 21W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is present up to 90 nm along either side of the ITCZ west of 41W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms at the south-central Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1021 mb high southeast of New Orleans to near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are evident at the central and eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas exist at the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the high and related ridge will dominate the Gulf through midweek next week, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up each night off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A trade-wind pattern continues for the entire Caribbean Basin. Convergent trades are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Hispaniola and central Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the Caribbean Basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are dominating the south- central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are noted at the northwestern and southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere of the basin. For the forecast, the Atlantic Ridge near 26N72W will sustain fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central and southwestern basin through the forecast period. Seas will peak near 10 ft tonight and Sat night. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are forecast for the northwestern basin, pulsing to fresh at night in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the central Bahamas. Convergent southerly winds are triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 27N between 70W and the Florida Georgia coast. Refer to the Tropical Waves, and ITCZ/Monsoon Trough sections for additional convection in the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh ENE to SSE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are seen north of 20N between 30W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong N to NE winds with locally near-gale winds dominate north of 22N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. For the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft in large NE winds are seen north of 20N between the central central Africa coast and 30W. For the Tropical Atlantic south from 09N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft exist. Light to gentle southerly and monsoon winds along with 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will drift W and weaken further Sat, allowing convection near and north of the ITCZ to diminish. Associated strong S winds north of 30N between 75W and 78W will also decrease overnight. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E winds and moderate seas will develop tonight offshore Hispaniola northward toward the Turks and Caicos and prevail through Sat night. $$ Chan