000 AXNT20 KNHC 131633 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jul 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1633 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38.5W from 20N southward, and moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 11N between 35W and 41W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from N of Puerto Rico to central Venezuela, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 23N between 63W and 70W. Recent scatterometer data measured winds to 40 kt within the strongest convection near 21N67W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from the Cayman Islands S across western Panama and into the East Pacific Ocean, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found over the coastal waters of Panama and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Western Sahara and Mauritania, then curves southwestward across 13N24W to 10N41W. An ITCZ continues westward from 10N41W across 09N50W to 08N58W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 09N to 13N between the Guinea/Sierra Leone coast and 22W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are depicted across the basin in association with a surface trough in the south-central Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, ridging in association with a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 27N86W is dominating the Gulf. Moderate E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are evident at the central and eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected tonight and possibly again Sun night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection information in the Caribbean Basin. Elsewhere, trade-winds continue to dominated the weather pattern for the entire Caribbean Basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft are dominating the south-central and portions of the the SW basin. Moderate ENE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are noted at the northwestern and southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the gradient related to Atlantic high pressure will continue to allow for fresh to strong trade winds over most of the southwestern Caribbean through early on Sun, and over the central Caribbean through the forecast period while expanding in coverage. Fresh winds will pulse tonight in the Gulf of Honduras and in the Windward Passage. Fresh winds will pulse again at night in the Windward Passage Sun through Tue. A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, some producing gusty winds. The wave is forecast to reach the western Caribbean Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak surface trough extends from the NW Bahamas to central Cuba while a mid to upper level trough is located between South Florida and the Bahamas. The presence of these features is sustaining scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the offshore waters from east of South Florida to the waters surrounding the NW and Central Bahamas. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves and ITCZ/Monsoon Trough sections for additional convection in the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh mainly E winds dominate waters 15N to 25N between 36W and 76W. Seas in this area are 6 to 9 ft. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are ongoing N of 22N and E of 25W, with seas 5 to 8 ft. For the Tropical Atlantic south from 09N to 15N between 36W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft exist. Gentle winds along with 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds will pulse tonight offshore Hispaniola. E swell producing seas to 9 ft east of the southeastern Bahamas to near 63W will slowly subside through early Sun. The Bermuda high will build southwestward toward central florida over the next several days. An increasing area of numerous showers and thunderstorms is S of 24N between 64W and 70W. The showers and thunderstorms are gradually shifting westward in tandem with an eastern Caribbean tropical wave. Gusty winds and frequent lightning can be expected with this activity. $$ KRV