000 AXNT20 KNHC 140605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jul 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 21N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 11N between 41W and 45W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W from 22N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted near the eastern Dominican Republic. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 18N southward across Miskito Cays and eastern Costa Rica into the East Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near Costa Rica and western Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near the Banc d'Arguin National Park, then extends southwestward through 14N30W to 09N46W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N46W to 09N56W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of the trough from 06N to 11N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 30W, and within 60 nm of 05N35W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring up to 40 nm along either side of the ITCZ between 45W and 52W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near eastern Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Bay of Campeche. Another surface trough stretching southward from Florida across the Florida Straits to western Cuba is generating similar weather near the Florida Keys and western Cuba, including the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high over the northeastern Gulf dominates much of the Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh ENE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the Bay of Campeche and southeastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas are seen at the north-central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the high will continue to dominate the Gulf through early next week, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected tonight off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Atlantic Ridge near 27N sustains a trade-wind pattern for the entire Caribbean Sea. Refer to the Tropical Waves sections for convection in the region. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are found at the southern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for rest of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, pressure gradient between the Atlantic Ridge and lower pressure in South America will continue to allow fresh to strong trade winds over most of the southwestern basin through Sun, and over the central basin through midweek while expanding in coverage. Fresh winds will pulse at night in the Windward Passage through Tue. A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is accompanied by scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds. The wave is forecast to reach the western basin Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergent flow associated with an upper-level low near 21N56W is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms just north of the Virgin and northern Leeward Islands. Convergent southerly winds are producing similar conditions off central Florida. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon/ITCZ, sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A large 1029 mb Bermuda High is supporting gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft seas north of 20N between 25W and the Florida/Georgia coast, except fresh to strong ESE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas near the central and southeast Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, moderate with locally fresh NNE winds and and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. For the Cabo Verde Islands, Light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail north of 10N between the central Africa coast and 30W. In the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and light to gentle monsoonal winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong E winds are pulsing offshore Hispaniola. E swell with seas up to 9 ft is reaching the Turks and Caicos an southeast Bahamas tonight, but this swell will decay Sun. The Bermuda High will build southwestward toward Florida over the next several days. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola is associated with the northern periphery of a Caribbean tropical wave $$ Chan