000 AXNT20 KNHC 141626 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jul 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1621 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26.5W from 26N southward, and moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted with this wave from 08N to 11N between 20W and 30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 44.5W from 21N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 12N between 39W and 49W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from Hispaniola to western Venezuela, and moving westward at around 10 kt. Isolated moderated convection is depicted north of Hispaniola. A western Caribbean tropical wave along 85W is approaching the Gulf of Honduras but otherwise has moved inland into Central America and now extends south into the far eastern Pacific Ocean. This wave is moving W at 5 to 10 kt and is inducing scattered moderate convection near the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guerguerat coast then extends southwestward through 12N35W to 10N48W. An ITCZ continues westward from 10N48W to 08N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring up to 100 nm along either side of the ITCZ between 50W and 58W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Bay of Campeche. A weaker trough over the western Florida Peninsula is leading to isolated moderate convection offshore Florida extending S into the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is also depicted in the Louisiana and Alabama offshore waters. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high centered 28N91W dominates much of the Gulf. Outside of convection, moderate ENE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the Bay of Campeche and southeastern Gulf. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through the week supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered N of the basin is sustaining a tradewind dominated weather pattern over the Caribbean. Convection in the basin is associated with tropical waves. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are found at the southern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail for rest of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic ridging and lower pressure in South America will continue to allow for fresh to strong trade winds over portions of the southwestern Caribbean today, and over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, while expanding in coverage. Fresh winds will pulse at night in the Windward Passage through Tue. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean near 71W will reach the western Caribbean Mon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 240 nm west of the wave N of 15N. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms extends from the central Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Convection near Hispaniola is associated with a Caribbean Tropical Wave, described in the section above. A weak surface trough is producing isolated moderate convection from 21N to 27N between 55.5W and 58W. The remainder of convection in the basin is also associated with tropical waves or the ITCZ, and is described in the relevant sections above. An expansive 1028 mb Bermuda High is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft seas north of 20N between 25W and the Florida/Georgia coast, with fresh ESE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas near the central and southeast Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, moderate with locally fresh NNE winds and and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 19W. For the Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail north of 10N between the central Africa coast and 35W. In the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and light to gentle monsoonal winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure ridge will extend southwestward to central Florida over the next few days. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will exist south of the ridge, and light to gentle south to southwest winds will be north of the ridge. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh speeds over the southeastern waters starting late on Wed as central Atlantic high pressure strengthens and a tropical wave moves through tropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms extends from the central Bahamas to eastern Cuba. This feature will continue westward through Mon. To its E, the northern portion of a tropical wave that is along 71W and S of 23N will continue westward reaching the Straits of Florida Tue, with scattered showers and thunderstorms accompanying it. $$ KRV