000 AXNT20 KNHC 151029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jul 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 23N southward, and moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 23W and 33W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 21N southward, and moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 11N between 44W and 54W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from eastern Cuba to Colombia. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in and near the Windward Passage and just N of eastern Cuba. A western Caribbean tropical wave along 89W has nearly exited the basin into Honduras, Nicaragua, and the eastern Pacific Ocean. However, a small part of its axis is still over the Gulf of Honduras, and is moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the Gulf of Honduras, including waters near the Bay Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Western Sahara/Mauritania, then continues southwestward across 14N35W to 09N56W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest analysis. Scattered moderate convection has developed within 60 nm of the monsoon trough, to the E of 20W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate convection across Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is producing scattered moderate convection eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1020 mb high centered just southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana, continues to dominate most of the Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the SE Gulf, otherwise, mainly light winds and seas less than 2 ft prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through the week supporting moderate or weaker winds and mainly slight seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are found at the south-central and portions of the SW basin. Elsewhere across the basin, mainly moderate E winds prevail with seas of 4 to 7 ft. See the tropical waves and monsoon trough sections above for information on convection in the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the week. Fresh winds will pulse tonight in the Windward Passage. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean near 75W will move across the remainder of the basin through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough northeast of the Lesser Antilles is generating scattered moderate convection from 23N to 27N between 57W and 64W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and ITCZ/Monsoon Trough sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. An expansive surface ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high pressure center E of Bermuda is dominating much of the basin, leading to gentle to moderate mainly E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas N of 20N and W of 30W. Farther E, mainly fresh NE to N winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are impacting waters from the Canary Islands to the African coast. Lighter winds and lesser seas are occurring south of this area, including in the vicinity of the Cabo Verde Islands. Between the monsoon trough and 20N, mainly moderate E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail. Farther S, gentle mainly southerly winds prevail, with moderate seas in mixed swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure ridge will extend southwestward to central Florida into late week. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh speeds over the southeastern waters starting late on Wed as the high pressure strengthens some, and a tropical wave moves through tropical Atlantic waters. The northern portion of a tropical wave that is along 75W and S of 22N will continue westward reaching the Straits of Florida Tue, with scattered thunderstorms accompanying it. $$ Konarik