000 AXNT20 KNHC 152257 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jul 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from 08N to 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near southern part of the wave from 06N to 10N between 30W and 35W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles, with its axis along 57W/58W south of 20N. It is moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated showers are near the southern part of the wave from 06N to 10N between 56W and 58W. A western Caribbean tropical wave moved inland Central America this afternoon, with its axis near 84W and its northern portion reaching to near 18N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Increasing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are over most of Honduras, eastern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are east of the wave from 16N to 19N between 84W and 86W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of western Sahara/Mauritania, then continues southwestward to 10N23W to 10N35W to 12N42W and to 11N52W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest analysis. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough 20W and 23W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 18W and 20W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient over the basin is supported by weak high pressure centers of 1019 mb in the NE Gulf near 28N87W and in the NW Gulf near 28N94W. The weak gradient supports light to gentle variable winds and slight seas. A surface trough just inland the western Florida panhandle extends westward to southeastern Louisiana. Clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the trough. Increasing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf are within a very moist and unstable environment, and are being aided by slight diffluence aloft. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted over the rest of the basin. A weak surface trough is over the SW Gulf near 95W from 19N to 23N. Isolated weak showers are near this trough. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a weak ridge westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week, supporting moderate or weaker winds and mainly slight seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move westward through the Straits of Florida tonight through Tue, behind the northern portion of a tropical wave that is currently along 81W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Atlantic high pressure ridging extends roughly along 30N/31N, with a 1021 mb high center analyzed near 29N73W. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure in South America is inducing fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the south- central part of the basin and over portions of the southwestern Caribbean. Seas with these winds are in the 7 to 10 ft range. Elsewhere across the basin, mainly moderate trade winds prevail per latest ASCAT satellite data passes. Seas with these winds are in the range of 4 to 7 ft. The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward to northwest Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over some sections of Panama and over southern Costa Rica. Similar activity is also seen over most of the islands of Cuba and Hispaniola. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge extending along 30N/31N and lower pressure across South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through Thu before diminishing slightly. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move westward across the northwestern part of the basin tonight through Tue, behind the northern portion of a tropical wave that is currently along 84W. Winds will pulse to fresh this evening through tonight in the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of the Bermuda-Azores High which is supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the central and western regions along with moderate seas. Northeast winds of similar speed are over the eastern subtropical waters, except for fresh to strong NE winds between the coast of NW Africa and the Canary Islands where seas are likely rough to 8 ft. A surface trough is analyzed from near 30N60W to 25N63W. A small upper-level low is in the vicinity of this trough. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 23N to 30N between 58W and 66W, and also between the Bahamas and Cuba. Similar activity is over most of the interior of the Florida peninsula. For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure ridging will extend southwestward to central Florida through Fri. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh speeds over the southeastern waters starting late on Wed as the high pressure strengthens some, and a tropical wave moves through tropical Atlantic waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move westward through the Bahama Banks and Straits of Florida this evening through Tue, in the wake of a tropical wave that recently moved inland Central America. $$ Aguirre