000 AXNT20 KNHC 160606 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jul 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 22N southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 11N between 33W and 38W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near Barbados at 55W from 20N southward into northern Suriname, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over northern parts of Suriname and French Guiana. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W from the Gulf of Honduras southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacific. It is moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen over Honduras and Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of western Sahara/Mauritania, then meanders southwestward across 11N30W to 12N53W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 09N to 12N between Guiana coast and 25W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found near and up to 150 nm south of the trough west of 48W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest analysis. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough near the west coast of Florida is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1017 mb high at the northeastern Gulf to just north of Tampico, Mexico. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft exist at the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will persist across the northern Gulf into the weekend, supporting moderate or weaker winds and mainly slight seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger at the Straits of Florida through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Atlantic Ridge near 25N is sustaining a trade-wind regime across much of the basin. Convergent trades are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over southern Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident at the southwestern and north-central basin, including the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, tight gradient between the Atlantic Ridge and lower pressure across Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over the central basin into Thu before diminishing slightly. Scattered thunderstorms will move westward across the northwestern basin through Tue, behind the northern portion of a tropical wave that is currently near 86W. Winds will pulse to fresh tonight in the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low near 25N68W and induced surface trough are generating widely scattered moderate convection from 20N to 29N between 54W and 67W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A large 1025 mb Bermuda-Azores High near 31N49W is supporting gentle to moderate NE to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 20N between 20W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong NNE to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate north of 22N between the northwest Africa coast and 20W. For the tropical Atlantic from 12N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle NE and monsoonal westerly winds with 2 to 4 ft seas persist from 10N to 22N between the central Africa coast and 30W. Light to gentle southerly winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High and associated Atlantic Ridge will persist over the north Atlantic and central Florida through the weekend. Winds northeast of the Leeward Islands are forecast to increase to fresh starting late Wed as the high pressure strengthens some and a tropical wave moves through tropical Atlantic waters. Scattered thunderstorms will move westward through the Great Bahama Bank and Straits of Florida through Tue, behind the northern portion of a tropical wave that is currently along 86W. $$ Chan