000 AXNT20 KNHC 161036 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jul 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 22N southward, and moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 10N between 35W and 38W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 59W, from 20N to just W of Barbados to Guyana, moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over waters near Suriname and Guyana. A western Caribbean tropical wave along 88W is nearly fully into Central America and the eastern Pacific Ocean, but its axis is still over portions of the Gulf of Honduras, and moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Western Sahara/Mauritania, then meanders southwestward across 11N30W to 12N50W. An ITCZ has developed from 12N50W to 10N55W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 09N to 12N between Guiana coast and 25W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate convection across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered convection along the west coast of Florida in association with a weak surface trough has dissipated early this morning. The Gulf is dominated by 1018 mb high pressure centered offshore Mobile Bay, inducing mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft. Some gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are ongoing in and near the Florida Straits. For the forecast, weak high pressure focused over the northern Gulf will support moderate or weaker winds and mainly slight seas. Scattered thunderstorms will move westward just offshore Cuba today, behind the northern portion of a tropical wave that is currently moving into Central America. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Atlantic Ridge axis along 28N is sustaining a trade-wind regime across the basin. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for information on convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted at the south- central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident at the southwestern and north- central basin, including the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge N of the area and lower pressure across South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean before diminishing slightly. Scattered thunderstorms will move westward across the NW basin today, behind the northern portion of a tropical wave that is moving into Central America. Winds will pulse to fresh this morning in the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convection in association with a deep-layer rough from around 29N54W and 20N67W has diminished early this morning. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A large 1025 mb Bermuda-Azores High centered near 31N49W extends a ridge axis along 29N. This is supporting light to gentle winds N of 26N across the basin, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. To the south of this zone, extending to the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh trades dominate, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Farther east, locally strong NE winds are ongoing off the coast of Western Sahara, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. For waters S of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure ridge will extend southwestward to Central Florida into the weekend. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh over the southeastern waters starting late on Wed as the high pressure strengthens some and a tropical wave moves through tropical Atlantic waters. $$ Konarik