000 AXNT20 KNHC 190542 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jul 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 60W/61W from 21N southward, moving westward 20 knots to 25 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 15N17W, to 10N30W to 08N49W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, and from 10N southward from 55W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a 33N53W Atlantic Ocean 1028 mb high pressure center, through 29N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, through Florida near 28N82W, to 27N92W in the Gulf of Mexico, to the Deep South of Texas. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf waters. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N93W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 17N to 23N between 95W and 99W, in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is off the NW coast of Cuba. Some small areas of developing rainshowers, and other areas of weakening convective precipitation, cover the rest of the area. Slight seas, and moderate or slower winds, are in the Gulf. High pressure will extend from the western Atlantic into the northern Gulf of Mexico through early next week, supporting mainly gentle winds and slight seas. Unstable atmospheric conditions with periods of active weather will persist across the northern Gulf through Fri as an upper trough continues to the N of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to near-rough seas are from 12N to the Windward Passage between 70W and 80W. Moderate seas are elsewhere between Puerto Rico and 80W. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are in the central one-third of the area. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 11N75W in Colombia, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the south of the monsoon trough. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 19/0000 UTC, are: 0.12 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. The pressure gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge extending along roughly 30N and lower pressure across South America is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds over the central Caribbean, with mainly moderate seas. Winds and seas will diminish slightly tonight through early Sat as a pair of tropical waves move through the basin. The tradewinds and associated seas will increase again Sat through Mon as high pressure builds again in the wake of the tropical waves. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation, between 60W and Florida. A surface trough passes through 31N30W, to 28N34W, and to 26N42W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the surface trough. A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 33N53W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 42W westward. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are from 20N to 24N between 54W and 63W, and within 120 nm to the north of the coast of Hispaniola between 70W and the Windward Passage. Fresh NE to E winds are elsewhere from 12N to 28N between 30W and 65W; and from 24N southward between 65W and 75W. Moderate to near-rough seas are from 20N to 24N between 45W and 55W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from 70W eastward. Slight seas are from 70W westward. The Bermuda-Azores High will extend east to west along roughly 30N through Tue. This pattern will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 26N, with winds pulsing to strong during the late afternoon and evening off the northern coast of Hispaniola. $$ mt