000 AXNT20 KNHC 191015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jul 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is added to the 0600 UTC surface map based on satellite imagery and the Hovmoller Diagram. A broad cyclonic circulation is associated with this wave that is producing some shower activity. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 62W from 20N southward, moving westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the wave axis. The wave appears to enhance convection over eastern Venezuela. Another tropical wave is moving westward across the western Caribbean at about 20 kt. Its axis is along 83W/84W. The wave is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. This convective activity is affecting parts of Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, Costa Rica and western Panama as well as the waters from 15N to 19N between 80W and 87W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 15N17W to 10N35W to 07N54W. scattered moderate convection is noted near 13N20W, from 08N t0 10N between 30W and 37W, and from 06N to 10N between 50W and 54W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas. An upper-level trough is supporting a few showers and thunderstorms across the basin. Convection increases along the Mexican coast S of 22N due to a diffluent pattern aloft. For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will extend across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico through early next week. This system will support gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas. Pulsing moderate to fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening and night hours due to local effects. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea. Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for more details. Recent scatterometer and buoy observations confirmed the presence of fresh to strong trade winds and seas to 8 ft south of Jamaica and Hispaniola. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low. Gentle to moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin, except in the SW Caribbean where mainly light winds and slight seas prevail. African dust dominates most of the tropical Atlantic based on the Saharan Air Layer tracking product from CIMSS. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean, with mainly moderate seas. Winds and seas will diminish slightly through early Sat as a tropical wave moves through the basin. The trade winds and associated seas will increase again Sat through Mon as high pressure builds again in the wake of the tropical wave. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda-Azores High dominates the Atlantic forecast region with a 1027 mb high pressure center near 32N54W. A wind surge of fresh to strong speeds with seas of 8 to 9 ft is noted between the high pressure and the tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean. These winds are affecting mainly the waters from 19N to 24N between 55W and 65W. Fresh to strong winds are also noted off the N coast of Hispaniola based on scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will extend east to west along roughly 30N through Tue. This pattern will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 26N, with winds pulsing to strong during the late afternoon and evening off the northern coast of Hispaniola. $$ GR